What might we expect in 2017?

On a number of measures, 2016 was a watershed year. Unexpected election results, fractious geopolitics, numerous celebrity deaths, too many lacklustre blockbuster films, spectacular sporting upsets (and regular doping scandals), and sales of vinyl records are outpacing revenue from digital downloads and streaming services. What might we expect from 2017?

Detail from "The Passing Winter" by Yayoi Kusama (Photo by Rory Manchee)

Detail from “The Passing Winter” by Yayoi Kusama [Photo by Rory Manchee]

Rather than using a crystal ball to make specific predictions or forecasts, here are some of the key themes that I think will feature in 2017:

First, the nature of public discourse will come under increased scrutiny. In the era of “post-truth”, fake news and searing/scathing social commentary, the need for an objective, fact-based and balanced media will be paramount. In addition, the role of op-ed pieces to reflect our enlightened liberal traditions and the need for public forums to represent our pluralist society will be critical to maintaining a sense of fairness, openness, and just plain decency in public dialogue.

Second, a recurring topic of public conversation among economists, politicians, sociologists, HR managers, career advisors, bureaucrats, union leaders, technologists, educators and social commentators will be the future of work. From the impact of automation on jobs, to the notion of a universal basic income; from the growth of the gig economy, to finding purpose through the work we do. How we find, engage with and navigate lifelong employment is now as important as, say, choosing high school electives, making specific career choices or updating professional qualifications.

Third, the ongoing focus on digital technology will revolve around the following:

  • The Internet of Things – based on a current exhibit at London’s Design Museum, the main use cases for IoT will continue to be wearable devices (especially for personal health monitoring), agriculture, transport and household connectivity
  • Fintech – if a primary role of the internet has been for content dissemination, search and discovery, then the deployment of Blockchain solutions, the growth in crypto-currencies, the use of P2P platforms and the evolution of robo-advice are giving rise to the Internet of Money
  • Artificial Intelligence – we are seeing a broader range of AI applications, particularly around robotics, predictive analytics and sensory/environmental monitoring. The next phase of AI will learn to anticipate (and in some cases moderate) human behaviour, and provide more efficacious decision-making and support mechanisms for resource planning and management.
  • Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality – despite being increasingly visible in industries like gaming, industrial design, architecture and even tourism, it can feel like VR/AR is still looking for some dedicated use cases. One sector that is expected to benefit from these emerging technologies is education, so I would expect to see some interesting solutions for interactive learning, curriculum delivery and student assessment.

Fourth, and somewhat at odds with the above, the current enthusiasm for the maker culture is also leading to a growing interest in products that represent craft, artisan and hand-made fabrication techniques and traditions. Custom-made, bespoke, personalized and unique goods are in vogue – perhaps as a reaction to the “perfection” of digital replication and mass-production?

Fifth, with the importance of startups in driving innovation and providing sources of new economic growth, equity crowdfunding will certainly need to come of age. Thus far, this method of fund-raising has been more suited (and in many cases, is legally restricted) to physical products, entertainment assets, and creative projects. The delicate balance between retail investor protection and entrepreneurial access to funding means that this method of startup funding is constrained (by volume, amounts and investor participation), and contrary to stated intentions, can involve disproportionate set up costs and administration. But its time will come.

Finally, as shareholder activism and triple bottom line reporting become more prevalent (combined with greater regulatory and compliance obligations), I can see that corporate governance principles are increasingly placing company directors in the role of quasi-custodians of a company’s assets and quasi-trustees of stakeholder interests. It feels like boards are now expected to be the conscience of the company – something that will require directors to have greater regard to the impact of their decisions, not just whether those decisions are permitted, correct or good.

One thing I can predict for 2017, is that Content in Context will continue to comment on these topics, and explore their implications, especially as I encounter them through the projects I work on and the clients I consult to.

Next week: The FF17 Semi Finals in Melbourne

Summing up the #FinTech summit

Coinciding with the launch of the inaugural EY FinTech Australia Census 2016*, FinTech Australia’s first industry summit Collab/Collide was a major beneficiary of the initial round of funding from the Victorian government’s LaunchVic program. The summit provided a useful opportunity to survey the global landscape, to compare notes and of course, to network. But did we learn anything new?

6278fd_bc2f12c8b40744a281f9afbb37ba1a3emv2The summit was programmed around key FinTech themes of payment services, alternative funding, robo-advice, Blockchain, data and regulation. Participation by some key industry figures from Asia, Europe and the USA (both founders and investors) also provided some international perspective.

While Australia appears to be maintaining a top 5 position in the global FinTech rankings, our focus on things like P2P lending, payments and robo-advice risks losing sight of bigger opportunities in Blockchain assets, enterprise solutions and institutional services.

And although it was good to see a team from the Treasury Corporation of Victoria in the audience, as well some of their colleagues from DEDJTR, it was surprising that there was hardly any representation from among institutional investors (superannuation funds, asset managers, insurance industry), major financial institutions, or the traditional financial markets (exchanges, intermediaries, brokers, vendors)**.

Some of the best sessions were the comparative panels on Blockchain, regulation and funding. In particular, there was an interesting discussion on whether Australia should be worried or concerned about UK opportunities post-Brexit, or focus more on Asian markets. But with the development of reciprocal financial licensing arrangements between Australia and the UK, and Australia and Singapore (and between the UK and Singapore), ASIC is clearly trying to engage with both markets.

The Federal Treasurer, Scott Morrison also took time out of his busy schedule to address the audience on the topic of Open Banking Standards, following on from the Productivity Commission’s Draft Report on Data Availability and Use. The overall goal is to have a system of FinTech data and operating standards that is “regulatory match fit”, that delivers frictionless inter-party transactions and enhanced industry participation and collaboration. For example: once the New Payment Platform launches in 2017, we should have more open access to transaction data; the ATO is implementing a “single-touch” payroll process; and ASIC is due to publish recommendations for the financial services Regulatory Sandbox by the end of 2016.

Unfortunately, given the changes in venue and content, the program struggled to stretch to a second full day, as audience numbers dwindled. Something for the organisers to think about next time? I would also advocate organising specific sessions, e.g., for B2B and B2C, or for vendors and institutions.

Finally, speaking to a member of the DEDJTR team, there is a clear desire on the part of the State government that the FinTech community will come together along with other market participants to figure out how to scale this emerging sector. In other words, how to turn the growing number of FinTech startups (often with directly competing products and services), hubs, incubators, accelerators and VC funds into a sustainable industry?

* For a handy summary of the EY survey, check out Lucinda de Jong’s blog for Timelio

** In the interests of full disclosure, a FinTech startup I work with, Brave New Coin (a market data vendor for Blockchain assets) was a Strategic Partner for the Summit

Next week: The Startup of Me v2.0

More on #FinTech, #Bitcoin and #Blockchain in Melbourne

The Melbourne FinTech community brought together a bunch of interested parties recently to find out what’s happening locally in Bitcoin and Blockchain. Organised by the Melbourne Bitcoin, FinTech and Silicon Beach Meetups, and hosted by the Melbourne Bitcoin Technology Centre (MBTC), the evening was part open house, part info sharing, and part pitch night.

BitcoinThe MBTC is now a recognised hub for Bitcoin and Blockchain activities, and currently hosts around a dozen startups within its co-working space. Offering a “full service” facility (it even has a Bitcoin miner on site), complete with staffed reception, meeting rooms, event space, a pod cast studio and an outdoor barbecue area, it’s something of a hidden gem in Melbourne’s Southbank. Regulars also get to attend Bitcoin “swap meets”…..

Last week’s event also featured a number of micro-pitches from Bitcoin and Blockchain startups, a few of the MBTC staff and tenants, and a couple of student projects from RMIT.

Given this was almost “speed pitching“, it’s probably not appropriate to go into too much detail:

  • Toodles – a dating app on a decentralized network, using a Blockchain solution for additional security and privacy
  • Blockfreight – the Blockchain for global freight, enabling cargo containers to be shipped around the world with minimal legacy documentation, based on smart contracts, RFID and Blockfreight tokens
  • blockTRAIN – a training provider and consultancy on Blockchain, smart contracts and digital currencies
  • Bitcoin Buskers v2 – sort of MySpace/Bandcamp/SoundCloud for Buskers, to promote their merchandise and to secure international festival bookings, all powered by Bitcoin
  • ACX – Australian Crypto Exchange, offering the largest single Bitcoin order book in Australia
  • Bitcoin Group – explaining that most Bitcoin mining is currently done in China due to cheaper electricity
  • Antstand – portable laptop stand (which you can buy with Bitcoin!)
  • Think Bitcoin – providing consulting and education services, particularly in schools
  • Lyra – an app to track and reduce your personal environmental impact, sort of Fitbit and Smart Meter combined
  • ImagineNation – innovation consultancy, backed by training and coaching, and featuring a 2-day startup game to help organisations transform cultural mindsets around agile, lean, design thinking, UX and incubator/accelerator concepts
  • Brave New Coin – the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”, providing market data (prices, rates, indices, news) for Bitcoin and other digital currencies*

With the next Bitcoin halving due soon, and a significant uptick in FinTech, Blockchain and Digital Asset investments announced during Q2, this sector is going to look very interesting for some time to come, and it’s good to know that Melbourne, whose fortunes were founded on gold, is staking a claim in these new asset classes.

* Declaration of Interest: I have recently joined the team at Brave New Coin as Head of Business Development – more news to follow….

Next week: University Challenge – Startup Victoria’s Student Pitch Night

#FinTech Melbourne’s latest #pitch event

The latest FinTech Melbourne meetup event was the second of their pitch nights. Co-hosted by NAB (at their Docklands Arena venue) and Capgemini (who were promoting the World Retail Banking Report 2016), the pitches were preceded by a panel discussion on a regulatory sandbox for Fintech startups.

The list of contenders.... (Photo By Andrew Lai, sourced from Meetup)

The list of contenders…. (Photo By Andrew Lai, sourced from Meetup)

The panel was composed of Ben Heap from H2 Ventures, Deborah Ralston from the Australian Centre for Financial Services (who is also the inaugural Chair of ASIC’s Digital Finance Advisory Committee), Sudhir Pai (CTO at Capgemini), and NAB’s Todd Reichmann. This is a topic that FinTech Melbourne has aired before, but it seems despite much industry anticipation and some cautiously positive noises from government, bureaucrats and regulators, there are still, to date, no concrete developments or proposals.

I fully understand the need for formal regulation in financial services, and FinTech in particular, to support investor protection, foster market confidence and maintain industry stability. But the cost or burden of compliance can act as an inhibitor for innovation and entrepreneurship. And of course, regulation and compliance are no guarantees that nothing will ever go wrong, even among our established and highly regulated financial institutions. The debate needs to move on to some practical solutions – such as ring-fencing FinTech startups so that they can trial new products and services in the market, within a limited, defined and narrowly permitted scope and range of activity, under some sort of provisional permit prior to obtaining fully licensed status.

Some members of the panel were in favour of a principles-based regulatory framework (e.g., focus on outcomes and intentions, rather than a reductive model, where nothing is allowed unless it is expressly permitted). The problem with this is that the industry already has to work within a very broad definition of what constitutes “financial advice” that is subject to regulation. So there needs to be a further re-think about what “financial advice” means, especially as between retail, sophisticated and institutional investors; and in turn, I see an opportunity for a more variegated approach to licensing or regulating different advice models: e.g., face-to-face and custom financial planning; scaled and personalised robo-advice; or broader, generalised “class” or “category” advice (by product, platform or service type). (Analagous models to draw on already exist in the areas of therapeutic goods licensing and food labelling measures.)

The panel also thought that partnerships between FinTech startups and established licensees offer one way to navigate the regulatory regime. And I can see that the right type of roboadvice could bring truly independent and objective financial advice on product and brand selection.

There was also a suggestion that the sandbox model could act as an umbrella entity for FinTech innovation. While there may be some merit in the idea (e.g., for regulating the API’s that provide access to customer financial data and credit history – although these should already be adequately covered by data protection and privacy requirements), I am sceptical of regulators’ ability to innovate. Plus, the key retail investor failures during the GFC were about investor ignorance, not just “poor”advice; so the need for financial literacy cannot be overstated.

On to the pitches themselves, which were judged by Ben Heap, Deborah Ralston and Rohen Sood from Reinventure:

Smartbit

Offering an automated finance layer for the Internet of Things, Smartbit has already built a secure, Blockchain-backed price index. The goal is to enable automated, real-time payments, between any two devices connected to the internet. They see themselves as the “Blockchain of Things”, and proceeded to give a cute (if somewhat pointless?) live demo of switching on a LIFX bulb with a Bitcoin payment token.

The judges were curious to know what the actual use case was (apart from turning on light bulbs…). In reply, they were told that Smartbit can deliver real-time settlement (unlike the 15 minutes delay of an US competitor), and is designed to support micropayments. Personally, I think the technology is already proven, but the need less so, at least from a B2C perspective. The fact that so many banks, exchanges and clearing houses are exploring Blockchain solutions means that it’s day will soon come when it is not just a “Bitcoin thing”, but will be an integral part of financial services, data solutions and digital asset management.*

Dragonbill

This is a smart payments platform to reduce cashflow stress. The main benefit is to shorten the time SME’s have to wait before they get paid. It offers both a secured payment facility (escrow), and an express payment option (e.g., a tradie can get paid as soon as they finish a job).

The chosen paths to market are social media, accountants, business advisors and mentors, and (unusually?) sports clubs. But it becomes clearer when you consider that clubs need to manage multiple, small membership payments; and many members of sports clubs are SME owners, independent tradies and sole proprietors. Dragonbill are also setting up a partnership with Xero accounting software.

The main questions from the judges concerned the ability to scale the business, and whether Dragonbill generates interest on amounts in escrow.

Truepillars

Another version of the peer-to-peer lending platform for SME borrowers, the business model is based on an online auction system where, for as little as a $50 bid, investors can bid on specific loan requests, with risk-adjusted interest rates, that are also determined by the number and amount of competing bids.

Access to traditional SME loans under $500k is increasingly limited as banks need to allocate more risk-weighted regulatory capital to cover their SME exposures, making them an inefficient and expensive use of bank capital.

The Truepillars platform offers borrower and investor dashboards for tracking and portfolio reporting, but the panel were worried that it wasn’t a unique proposition. However, unlike some of their competitors, Truepillars offers loan terms out to 5 years. It would also be interesting if investors (lenders) could build proper fixed income portfolios (by loan duration, yield curve, exposure type, recourse/rollover etc.), and if borrowers could cap the number of, and limit their exposure to, individual bids or lenders/borrowers.

Proviso

Claiming to be transforming lending, Proviso work with lenders to streamline the submission of borrowers’ financial data and bank statements in support of their loan applications. The prospective borrower logs into their account and gives permission for the lender to access their banking information, but Proviso does not “see”, hold or store the customer data – it merely acts as a pass-through. The goal is to reduce borrower application abandonment, and the service is already being used by 180 financial institutions – generating 60,000 requests per month. The business is being driven by enhanced customer experience, and ASIC directives on more prudent lending processes. In short, they claim to offer better, faster data.

The judges wanted to know how Proviso compares to Yodlee: “we’re local, and less painful to use” was the response – meaning that proximity offers speed and local market knowledge. Finding a market among non-conforming customers, Proviso is also looking at providing validation services. But in my mind, there is a risk that Proviso could be displaced by an industry-owned or regulatory mandated platform or utility (such as the creation of PEXA for real estate conveyancing and settlement.)

Airwallex

With a tag line, “cross-border payments made easy“, this another solution aiming to  transfer money between people, regardless of location, bank, currency, etc. Currently, Airwallex is focussing on Asia Pacific, and is the only Australian holder of a cross-border license to transact in Chinese RMB. It has also integrated with the three largest payment platforms in China – AliPay, WeChatPay and UnionPay, and built an API for e-commerce solutions. Airwallex claims to be faster, cheaper and simpler than the competition, using real-time FX rates.

The panel was naturally curious about how the platform is addressing anti-money laundering concerns and complying with counter-terrorism legislation. In order to offer lower fees than PayPal, and by only taking fees from the FX spreads, Airwallex has to automate the transaction process to achieve mid-market prices – but does the increased automation heighten the risk that the platform can be used for nefarious purposes?

After their deliberations, the judges declared Proviso as the winner – hard to argue with that sort of market traction.

*Note: Declaration of interest – I have recently joined the team at Brave New Coin, a FinTech building market data and infrastructure solutions for Bitcoin and Blockchain.

Next week: #StartupVic showcases the next batch of startup hopefuls