The cost of AI

A variant on Moore’s law is the observation that the financial capital required to launch a new business decreases exponentially as technology gets cheaper.

Pre-internet, and using a notional geometric scale for the purposes of illustration, you might have needed $5m to found and build a new venture. The World Wide Web probably reduced that to $500k, while cloud computing brought it down to $50k. With the expansion of SaaS and API solutions, that cost might have been $5k to get going. Now, vibe coding and $500 of AI prompts can probably launch a new website, build a back end database, implement an e-commerce solution and deploy agentic AI bots to go and find your first customers.

This is a great outcome if measured by a lower barrier to market entry. It also enables founders to “fail fast, fail cheap”, and incentivises innovation by financially de-risking the process.

But even though the cost of AI tools is extraordinarily cheap in terms of the computing and processing power they deliver, there is a huge cost to our rapid adoption of AI that needs to be accounted for.

First, we are seeing corporate lay-offs among tech firms and parts of the service industry that no longer need as many human bodies and minds to operate at scale. So there is a human, economic and societal cost of increased un(der)employment.

Second, traditional skills and expertise are being hugely reduced in perceived value – why pay a graphic artist to design an image when I can use dall-e for free?

Third, as more and more creative tasks are being outsourced or delegated to AI (“create a short story about an F1 race in the style of Ernest Hemingway”) we risk losing our own innate creativity (that comes with experimentation, curiosity, play and reflection). This in turn devalues the creative process itself (thanks to cheaper, AI-enabled production).

Fourth, AI (and the Large Language Models on which it is trained) has no great respect for intellectual property. It doesn’t recognise boundaries between copyright material, content that is subject to creative commons, content that is in the public domain, and content which is publicly available. Again, if copyright owners and original content creators are not recognised or compensated for their work, why would anyone aspire to creating anything original?

Finally, there is the cost of resources (energy, water, rare earth metals) needed to maintain huge AI processing plants and data centres. (But at least this demand is accelerating the development of renewable energy.)

A few years ago, I posted a blog about the importance of the human factor, in the face of technological progress brought by automation and AI. I still remain cautiously optimistic that AI will bring huge benefits, despite the rampant growth of AI in the three years since I wrote that piece. But we are currently in an awkward and comfortable transition phase. If more jobs are lost to AI, and if human-led output is increasingly devalued, perhaps we will need to revisit the debate about Universal Basic Income and other policies to facilitate this transition.

Next week: Music, music everywhere…. and none of it very memorable 

Time for age limits on religion?

As more countries consider following Australia’s lead in banning or restricting children and young people from accessing social media, I wonder why we don’t similarly consider a ban on religion for anyone under 16? Surely, if we want to protect our children from the potential harm caused by social media, we should include religious faith as having similar harmful effects on young minds.

I appreciate this may sound deliberately contentious, but bear with me. I come to this suggestion from a number of perspectives.

First, my own position on “god” and faith-based beliefs sits somewhere between agnosticism and atheism. For those who say “you’re just sitting on the fence” or “you’re hedging your bets”, I would reply I simply don’t have that die-hard certainty in theological beliefs or conviction of faith that is usually required (if not enforced) by most religions and cults. I have no problem with people practising or adhering to their own faiths. But in liberal, progressive, pluralistic and democratic societies the right to “freedom of religion” is balanced with the right to “freedom from religion”. Meaning I shouldn’t be disadvantaged or persecuted solely for my choice of a specific religion, or my choice of no religion. I would also side with the humanists and secularists who argue that your freedom to exercise your religion should not cause any harm to others, especially not to those who do not follow your particular persuasion. And your religious practices and preferences certainly shouldn’t curb my individual rights to things like legal birth control, divorce, gender equality etc. I would also argue that an individual’s freedom to choose their own religion (not have it imposed at birth as if it formed part of our DNA) should be based on an informed, independent and personal decision. Just as we have age limits for voting, driving, marriage and sexual relations, I think we should have minimum age limits for religious membership and participation.

Second, many of my ancestors were subjected to religious persecution. My French ancestors were protestants (Huguenots) and were effectively driven out of France; my Irish ancestors were catholics, and endured the strictures of British colonialism. Both suffered due to religious sectarianism – so I have little time for religious practices that foster discrimination, forced conversion or violence born of intolerance, fanaticism, extremism and fundamentalism. I certainly don’t want to live under theocratic rule!

Third, I spent much of my A-Level History course studying the Protestant Reformation, and the Catholic Counter-Reformation. From a political and cultural perspective, it is an extremely important period, and many of the key events and outcomes are echoed in today’s geo-political landscape. For example, Henry VIII’s break with Rome can be seen as the first Brexit; while vernacular translations of the bible and other religious texts (rather than the Latin versions imposed by the Catholic Church) were important for helping to spread literacy, and they have helped to inform notions of self-determination by nation states and ethnic minorities.

Fourth, those A-Level studies also exposed much of the nonsense that is spouted in the name of religion, for example: theological disputes around predestination and transubstantiation, and debates about how many angels can fit on the head of a needle. Much earlier in my life, I was a member of a church choir. I recall, aged 7 or 8, having to read out aloud during Sunday services some passages from the bible which I just didn’t understand (and which no-one in church could rationally explain). Yet, because they represented the “word of god”, they had to be true, and I was required to believe them, otherwise I was going to burn in hell. That’s surely not how we should be educating children, is it?

If we do want to teach ideas about religion to children under the age of 16, perhaps we need a different approach. While schools may offer classes in comparative religion, it’s largely under the auspices of religious education or religious instruction (or maybe social studies). Whereas, I think sacred texts should be taught as literature (fiction or poetry), and open to the same level of critical analysis applied to Shakespeare, Jane Austen or George Orwell. Maybe these texts could be studied and critiqued in philosophy classes, but certainly not taught as part of science or history subjects!

The current public debate around “religious freedom” is often tied up in torturous arguments about protected beliefs, freedom of speech, and the “right” to cause offence against someone’s personal beliefs. Increasingly, taking a secular or non-sectarian stance against religious overbearance (whether in the form of Islamic Jihadism, Christian Nationalism, Zionism, Hindu Nationalism or Buddhist ethno-nationalism) is dismissed and even prosecuted as evidence of racism, xenophobia, religious discrimination or incitement to violence. And as for the Federal government’s back-flip on launching a Royal Commission in the aftermath of the Bondi massacre, I think the Prime Minister was probably right to change his mind about holding an enquiry, but got it totally wrong by framing it in the context of only one form of religion. Instead, he should have made it a broader examination of religious extremism and sectarian intolerance of all kinds, and the harm this is having on society and our personal freedoms.

Next week: The cost of AI

Three things crypto isn’t….

Often, when the topic of cryptocurrency and blockchain comes up in conversation during social gatherings, I frequently hear that “crypto is a criminal venture, it’s a scam, and in any case, it has nothing to do with my life, so I can ignore it.”

Of course, there is an element of truth in each of these allegations. But the same level of scepticism or denial could be levelled at traditional finance systems (remember Enron, Bernie Madoff, Nick Leeson, LIBOR, the GFC….), on-line gambling (the house always wins….), and the early days of the Internet (I still recall one colleague saying “www” stood for “World-wide wait”…).

So allow me to address the charges frequently thrown at crypto:

1. “Crypto is only used by criminals.”

The irony is, of course, that blockchain is one of the most transparent financial systems ever built. Every transaction is recorded, permanent, and visible. It’s not the best tool for someone trying to hide something. Physical cash is opaque and frequently utilised in criminal enterprise.

2. “It’s a scam.”

Some of it probably is. But fraud, money laundering, hacking and illicit activity exist in traditional finance too. The difference is nobody calls the entire banking system a scam because of it. Crypto is just newer, and newer things attract more suspicion.

3. “It has nothing to do with my life.”

This one is the biggest misconception of all. If you’ve ever sent money overseas, there’s a good chance the payment provider used a blockchain or distributed ledger technology to process it, you just didn’t realise. Think of the Ripple Ledger, stablecoin networks like Circle, and the numerous projects that Chainlink is facilitating within inter-bank systems.

If you’ve ever tapped your phone to pay for something, you’ve used a digital wallet. A digital wallet in crypto works the same way, it holds your assets and proves they’re yours, and allows you to transact with those assets.

The only difference is there’s no bank sitting in between you and those transactions. The technology isn’t something new, you’re already using a version of it, you were just unaware.

Crypto is real and it’s already in your pocket.

The only things often missing are awareness, education and understanding.

Next week: Time for age limits on religion?

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My thanks to Simian Giria for helping to initiate this topic.

Crypto is like dog years….

Following on from last week’s post about my personal career path, I have been reflecting on my 10-year experience of working in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry.

Using the analogy of dog years, in crypto years, that’s more like half a century.

I sometimes joke about it with colleagues and clients, but the more you consider the pace of development in the crypto sector, the less of a joke it becomes.

In most industries, change happens over decades (yes, I know AI is now evolving at a rapid rate, but it has taken many years of earlier development to achieve this current momentum).

Regulations shift slowly, new asset classes take years to achieve legitimacy, and institutions move stolidly.

In crypto, that same volume of change happens in 12 months.

Consider what this industry has lived through in the last decade alone:

1. For me personally, Bitcoin went from being a “curiosity” at a Melbourne pitch night to a reserve asset held by sovereign nations.
2. Ethereum has introduced programmable money.
3. The ICO boom of 2017-19 upended the way companies and capital form around new technology, innovation and business ideas.
4. The cycle of market booms and crashes.
5. The DeFi experiment/explosion.
6. NFTs and RWA tokenisation.
7. The FTX collapse.
8. ETF approvals.
9. And now stablecoins and tokenised assets being quietly adopted by the very banks that once dismissed crypto entirely.

Every one of these reshaped how the industry operates at ground level.

Everything traditional finance systems took decades to build (price discovery, benchmarking, asset origination, financial structuring, risk management, clearing & settlement), crypto is rebuilding faster than ever.

After 10 years, I’m still not totally comfortable with all aspects of this constant rate of change, but I am a little better at reading it.

How do you keep up when your industry moves fast?

Next week: Three things that cryptocurrency isn’t

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My thanks to Simian Giria for helping to initiate this topic.