Are we there yet?

A couple of weekends ago in Melbourne, the question on many peoples’ minds was, “Are we there yet?” Namely, had the rate of new Covid-19 cases slowed down to the point where we could start to emerge from one of the longest and strictest lock-downs in the world? The answer was, “Yes, but not to the satisfaction of the government and their public health advisers.” So the opening up was pushed back again, having been brought forward by the very same government. It felt like the goal posts had been moved, and despite the huge sacrifices made by the general population, we were being asked to take a “cautious pause”.

No wonder some people got a bit uptight, and it took some tedious questioning from the media to establish what the Premier could have said at the outset of his umpteenth daily press conference. Yes, the Premier was tired, and he had been up late the night before, and he’d done over 100 pressers on the trot by that point. But you could hear and see the exasperation in his voice and in his body language as he realised how he’d managed to miscommunicate what should have been positive news – i.e., “We’re very close, everyone, and thank you all for your efforts, but just to be absolutely sure, please give me a couple of days more before I can confirm the decisions the government have already made.”

At the time of writing, people in Melbourne are still under pandemic restrictions, some of which have been in place since March:

  • If you can work from home, you must work from home
  • There is a limit on the number of people who can come to your home
  • There is also a limit on the size of gatherings in public
  • You can’t travel more than 25km from home
  • You can’t travel outside the Greater Melbourne area
  • Retail and hospitality are only allowed to open under strict conditions
  • Everyone must wear a face mask in public

And while there are some exceptions to each of the above, under the current State of Emergency, the government can rescind or reimpose each and every condition, or add new ones as they deem appropriate – including re-introduction of the overnight curfew, which seems to have been a political decision as much as one made on grounds of public health or public order.

I should say that I was in favour of the first lock-down in Victoria. In fact, I was actually glad that the Victorian Premier took a more conservative approach than some of his counterparts, which meant that during lock-down #1, Victoria appeared to be doing a much better job than NSW in containing the spread of the virus, when comparing the daily number of new cases in March and April. But I think the Victorian government should have gone harder when they had the chance, to nip it in the bud:

Charts sourced from The Guardian

However, masks weren’t made compulsory until much later during the so-called second wave, and lock-down #2. There could be several reasons for this:

  • Medical opinion was divided as to the efficacy of masks
  • The government wanted to reserve supplies for medical and other front line workers
  • There was inadequate public supply, partly because stocks had been diverted to regions impacted by the summer bush fires (and, initially, some local stocks had been donated to aid projects and sent overseas to China)
  • There were already too many other social behaviour changes that were needed, and which were deemed a higher priority

I’m not sure why there is still so much local resistance to wearing masks in public. Many people think it’s an infringement of their civil liberties, or they question the science, or they simply don’t like being told what to do. For men, I wonder if they feel that wearing a mask somehow emasculates them? For women, does it make them feel even more invisible than they already are in society? And for the ardent civil libbers, don’t any of them understand the concept of the mutual duty of care we each owe to our fellow citizens (even the self-styled, self-sovereign ones)? Having spent a lot of time in Asia, where social norms mean it is quite common to see people wearing masks in public, I guess I am less resistant to the idea. So much so, that I started wearing them in Melbourne before they became mandatory.

Of course, over 90% of locally-acquired cases which caused the second wave of new infections were directly the result of the failed hotel quarantine programme in two Melbourne hotels. I’ve commented on this fiasco before, and now the recent Board of Inquiry set up to investigate what happened has asked for an extension before delivering its verdict, owing to the late submission of evidence by key witnesses, including civil servants, public officials and elected representatives. As I wrote previously, the decision to engage private security to manage the quarantine programme is not the issue – it’s the decision-making process itself (referred to as “creeping assumptions”), and the oversight of the programme once it was established.

At this stage, we still don’t know who made the decision to hire private security companies; it’s not entirely clear which government department had oversight of the programme, as there was confusion and poor communication between departments; it’s also not clear whether the chosen security companies were on existing lists of Commonwealth- or State- approved contractors – and if they weren’t, what criteria were applied to employ them? And how did the other states manage to avoid the same level of community transmission that could have come from their own quarantine measures?

Anyone who has worked in or around government procurement will know how difficult it is to get on a contractor “panel”, and even then, the tendering process can be arduous and opaque. From my own experience, governments often use RFI/RFP/RFQ processes to glean as much intelligence as they can (with a view to keeping the project in-house), or to simply drive down the price, rather than to get the most qualified supplier at the best and most appropriate commercial rate. (And of course, there are examples of ex-civil servants forming their own businusses in order to tender for work they used to allocate – using their insider knowledge to the detriment of other bidders. In some cases, the civil servants don’t even wait to leave office….)

I appreciate there is a widely-held view that the breakdown in the hotel quarantine programme was not the only or direct cause of the second wave in Melbourne; but even if it were, it was the failure of the Commonwealth government to manage properly the private aged care facilities under their jurisdiction, which in turn revealed huge vulnerabilities in that sector, leading to the death of around 800 elderly Victorian residents from Covid-19. While I don’t doubt the inadequacies in aged care “settings”, I would have more sympathy with this argument if we had seen the same level of infections in aged care facilities in other states, particularly NSW, given that each state is under the same regime. The “mishaps” of the hotel quarantine programme sit front and centre as the root causes of the second wave, leading to the much severer lock-down #2.

Meanwhile, although the Premier likes to thank everyone for “doing the right thing” during the lock-down, he and his administration had a highly subjective attitude towards those members of the public who clearly weren’t doing the right thing. At times the rhetoric was merely ambivalent; other times it was highly ambiguous; occasionally it was disingenuous (if not wrong). This inconsistency and selective admonishment helped create further confusion among the public about how/when the various lock-down restrictions would be enforced. Worse, it sowed the seeds of growing discontent and underlying resentment in many parts of the community. And not helped by the apparent assertion that community cases among health care workers were all acquired in domestic “settings”, rather than in workplace “settings”.

Some of the other factors that may have contributed to Victoria’s second wave (and which have inter-state and national implications going forward as the domestic borders begin to re-open) include:

  • A highly centralised public health system (the current Premier was formerly the state Minister for Health, so no doubt he will have some views on that)
  • Inadequate PPE supplied to front-line medical staff and health workers in hospitals and clinics
  • Poor inter-departmental and inter-agency communication and co-ordination (plus those “creeping assumptions”)
  • A poor culture of “managing up” within ministerial offices (oh, and those “creeping assumptions”)
  • Confusion over respective roles and responsibilities, for example, as between the Chief Health Officer, the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Preventive Health Officer
  • “Track and trace” systems not fit for purpose
  • Lack of common definitions across the country – e.g., hot spot, complex case, mystery case, locally acquired case, quarantine and isolation periods, close contact, etc.
  • Lack of common IT systems for “track and trace” – so without inter-state interoperability, how is that going to work as people start traveling around the country again?

One “common” definition that definitely needs to be established is what constitutes a “household”? I’m not sure if there is a practical legal definition – maybe the Census form is one point of reference? (Perhaps another “test” is the supermarket offer, which usually says “only 1 per household”?) I would have said that a “household” is defined as a group of people who ordinarily live in the same dwelling or residence (whether a house, apartment, unit, rooming house, care home or hostel), regardless of whether they are related to one another, and regardless of whether they consider themselves as “living together”. Conversely “household” does not automatically mean everyone in your immediate or extended family. Where the lines have become blurred is when family members are frequently in each other’s homes for the purposes of sharing meals, care-giving or child-minding. The issue is not one of mere semantics – as we have seen, it is critical both in terms of preventing community transmission, and in enforcing quarantine and isolation measures.

Finally, I should also stress that I am very grateful to be living in Australia at present during this global pandemic, especially given the situation in many other countries. But at the risk of sounding parochial, I really would like to understand why Victoria got it so wrong (and has had to endure a second and onerous lock-down), and how NSW (so far) appears to have got it just about right.

Next week: From Brussels With Love (Revisited)

Startmate Virtual Demo Day

Despite being under lock-down, the current cohort of Australian & NZ startups participating in the Startmate accelerator programme managed to deliver their Demo Day presentations on-line, including a virtual “after party” where founders were available for Q&A.

Given the large number of startups, and the fact that several were very early stage businesses, I have grouped them into loose clusters, with just a brief summary of each project. More info can be found at the links in the names:

Real Estate

Landlord Studio – tax & book-keeping solution for landlords. I tend to think the need for very niche accounting solutions is either overstated, or existing software platforms like Xero will come up with a plug-in of their own. Also, tax rules vary greatly by jurisdiction, so scaling internationally can be a challenge.

Passingdoor – an online estate agency trying to remove some of the costs and hassles of selling your home. Rather than listing with a traditional estate agent, Passingdoor will find buyers on your behalf (via a matching process?). I assume that prospective buyers will come from: people in the process of selling their own home; buyer advocates; or recent mortgage applicants – which is why the founders will need relationships with traditional agencies (referrals), mortgage brokers (cross-selling) and real estate ad platforms (leads). But given that sellers on Passingdoor only pay a 0.5% commission once an offer becomes unconditional, I’m not sure how the cashflow model will work.

MedTech

Mass Dynamics – scaling spectrometry for improved patient care. From what I understand, Mass Dynamics is using cloud-based architecture to “lease out” spectrometry capacity on demand, and to accelerate sample analysis.

LaserTrade – a marketplace for second-hand medical laser equipment. Rather than seeing re-usable equipment go to scrap, the founder saw an opportunity to create a marketplace for unwanted items. All items are tested beforehand. Has the potential to extend to other types of equipment, assuming the certification process is valid?

Health & Wellbeing

Body Guide – semi-customised rehab exercises to suit your symptoms. With superb timing as we emerge from months of inaction (or poor posture) while working from home during lock-down, this service is an aid to physical recovery, once your condition has been formally diagnosed. I’d probably want to check in with my GP or physio that the programme was right for me, though.

Sonnar – offers a library of audio content for people with reading disabilities. This is a subscription service, which claims to be cheaper than other audio-book services, and with a broader type of content (periodicals as well as books). I was unclear whether Sonnar is cheaper because they don’t need to pay publisher or author royalties (as it is deemed a charity?), or because they only license out-of-copyright content.

Good Thnx – promises to be “the world’s best gifting and recognition tool, with impact”. Aiming to provide a service for businesses, individuals and partner charities, Good Thnx is still in development. But as part of the Startmate Demo Day, gave attendees an opportunity to allocate a small financial donation to a selection of charities.

Food & Agriculture

Cass Materials – With the search for sustainable alternatives to meat, Cass Materials is developing a cheap and edible high fibre cell scaffold on which to grow cultivated meat – otherwise known as bacterial nanocellulose (BNC). I’m not opposed to the idea of “meat substitutes”, but I’m generally wary of what are sometimes called “fake meats” – vegetable proteins that are so processed so as to resemble animal flesh. I’d rather go vegetarian (I’m not sure I can go full vegan, because if we weren’t supposed to eat honey and yoghurt, why do they taste so good, especially together?).

Digital Agriculture Services – An AgTech platform is using AI-powered applications for developing a range of data-driven solutions across rural, agricultural and climate applications. The potential to bring more business insights and practical analysis to farming and allied industries is of huge potential in the Australian economy.

Heaps Normal – This company has taken a novel approach to producing non-alcoholic beer. Rather than chemical extraction or other processing to remove alcohol from ordinary beer, Heaps Normal has managed to brew beer without alcohol content.

Energy

Gridcognition – Using digital twin mapping of buildings, structures and locations to optimise the planning and operation of distributed energy projects. Given the value of lower transmission and storage costs, as well as more efficient energy generation, Gridcognition is aiming to bring their “decarbonised, decentralised, digitised” solutions to a range of industry participants.

ZeroJet – Helping the marine industry transition to sustainable energy solutions with the development of electric propulsion systems. In particular, targeting small inshore craft which are ideal boats for this type of engine.

Logistics & Analytics

PyperVision – This startup has developed a system for fog dispersal at airports. By aiming for zero fog delays, PyperVision is helping to reduce disruption in the travel and logistics sectors.

Arlula – An API service to stream satellite images from space. As we know, satellite imagery is an important input to modelling, planning and analysis. Arlula also offers access to historic and archive content.

Database CI – A platform for in-house software developers to access the right sort of enterprise data for real-life testing purposes. For example, realistic and appropriate “dummy” data that does not compromise privacy, confidentiality or other obligations.

Law on Earth – On-line access to self-serve legal documents, forms and precedents, plus lower-cost legal advice. With a mission to “empower the public to safely manage their own legal needs”, Law on Earth already has a tie-up with Thomson Reuters, one of the largest legal information providers in the world.

Next week: Are we there yet?

Golden Years

This week I turned 60, which in the Chinese Zodiac means this is my Golden Year (I’m a Metal Rat, to be precise). Despite the global pandemic, and the challenges of having spent the best part of the last 7 months in Melbourne lock-down, I would say that this year I have been more fortunate than many others. For which I am grateful.

Golden Years – Image sourced from Discogs

But with more time for reflection on what this milestone might signify, I have been thinking about the circumstances in which I find myself – whether it’s true that “60 is the new 40”, or is it all downhill from here?

My own father left full-time employment before he was 60. And although he had planned to do some part-time consulting work in his semi-retirement, he ended up volunteering for numerous not-for-profit organisations, for the next 25 years. This included lengthy stints serving on various boards and committees, at times almost a full-time job in itself. I’m sure he found this work to be fulfilling and rewarding, alongside his U3A classes and other social activities, but I’m not certain it’s how he intended to spend his retirement. It seems like he fell into this type of role, and since he was good at it, people kept asking him to do more, and he couldn’t always say no.

On the other hand, my paternal grandfather, who ran a small building company, died before he was 50, so I never knew him. While my maternal grandfather had an erratic employment history (not helped by the 1930s depression and war-time disruption), and was still working in manual jobs until he passed away in his late 60s.

I left my last corporate job when I was 50. At first, I thought I would look for a new full-time role, but the combination of the fall-out from the GFC and an implicit age barrier made that less likely the longer I looked. Some of the job interviews I attended revealed a significant prejudice towards older candidates: either their experience represented a threat to incumbents; or their past seniority meant they were unlikely to be hands-on, and/or less adaptable to new technology and new working practices.

Realising I was heading into self-employment (comprising part-time, contract, temporary, casual, freelance and consulting roles) I decided to reorganise my affairs, in order to sustain this new lifestyle. A key reason for seeking another full-time corporate gig would have been to service my mortgage, which didn’t really make sense. I was fortunate that I was able to restructure my finances, and effectively live debt-free. This gave me the flexibility to do some retraining, and to venture into the start-up world, which is where I was able to apply my skills and experience more creatively than in a corporate environment. This is how I came to encounter new technology and new opportunities in the form of FinTech, Blockchain and Cryptocurrency. And the rest is history (thus far…)

I appreciate that not everyone has the same opportunities; and working in disruptive industries or joining a start-up is not for everyone, either. But I also know that if I hadn’t made similar or significant career changes (and personal choices) over the past 35 years, I wouldn’t be in a position to be enjoying a golden period of my life right now.

Next week: Startmate Virtual Demo Day

Bread And Circuses

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, here in Melbourne we are waiting for signs that the State Government is preparing to lift some or any of the restrictions that have kept us in Stage 3 & 4 lock-down for most of the past 7 months.

Photo sourced from Twitter (thanks, Warwick…) https://twitter.com/peely76/status/1309750743331606533?s=21

Data on new cases and community clusters released over the past few days suggest we won’t be “getting on the beers” with our mates any time soon, and certainly not with the Premier’s blessing.

The slow drip feed of information at the Premier’s daily press conferences, and the painful revelations at the recent Board of Inquiry into the failed hotel quarantine program, somehow suggest a Head Teacher who is forever saying, “This hurts me more than it hurts you” before handing out another punishment. Believe me, the audience increasingly feels like it is being tortured for its own good – because even though most of us understand why we had to have the first lock-down, the blatant failures within government, the civil service, certain public agencies and their private sector contractors have made it seem we are paying for their mistakes.

In Roman times, the general populace stayed docile as long as there were “bread and circuses” to feed and entertain them.

Now, apart from some toilet roll shortages early in the piece, and the occasional binge shopping on pasta and tinned tomatoes, by and large, the supply chains have been kept open, and the supermarket shelves replenished. (Some small grocers and independent producers may actually have benefited, as people are forced to shop local, and as restaurants pivoted towards cook-at-home meals – but equally, others may have been forced out of business if the major chains have used their market power to commandeer supply. Hopefully, the ACCC under Rod Sims will be keeping the latter honest.) Plus food delivery services have flourished due to the increased demand. So most of us can’t be said to be going hungry (although food banks have likewise never been busier).

So, in the words of Kurt Cobain, since we are still in lock-down, “Here we are now, entertain us!”

Box set bingeing and non-stop streaming only get us so far (I gave up about 3 weeks into lock-down Part 1). Broadcast sports are patchy given the limits on live crowds. Home-gigs/domestic-busking are not the same as a night at The Corner Hotel in Richmond. The lack of access to cinemas, theatres, galleries and museums means my need for culture is not easily satisfied. And while I have been digging into my library, revisiting classic albums, and trawling the BBC sound archives (as well as creating my own electronic music), the additional stimulus provided by in-person and on-location events is sorely lacking.

It’s clear that many of our artists and performers are also struggling, but their particular plight is not being fully recognised or acknowledged. In the UK, for example, the arts and entertainment community argues that their industry is under-appreciated for the financial contribution it makes to the national economy. This is not to overlook the social, cultural and mental health benefits of a thriving creative sector.

Meanwhile, the tedious cat and mouse game being conducted between the Premier and some sectors of the media (plus the highly divisive commentary generated by the Premier’s fervid supporters and detractors on social media) is no substitute for proper entertainment – and even though a couple of heads have been dispatched thanks to the Board of Inquiry (so, that was a thumbs down from the Emperor?), the lock-down song remains the same. Time to change the (broken) record?

Next week: Golden Years