Coming out of our shells

As we gradually emerge from 3 months of lock-down in Melbourne, there is a noticeable level of unease and anxiety about going shopping, sitting in cafes and restaurants, joining outdoor gatherings, and simply being out and about again. Many people are understandably exercising a degree of caution when it comes to interacting with members of the public. One of my friends describes this as “FOGO” – Fear Of Going Out.

The need for the Stage 4 lock-down (one of the longest and severest in the world) was largely the result of failures in the local hotel quarantine programme, and the consequent community transmission. It has been a long journey back to opening up, with a few speed humps along the way. Apart from a few objectors and dissenters, Melburnians by and large were happy to comply with the lock-down regulations, given their undoubted success in reducing the number of new cases. This was especially so when comparing our local situation with the second and third waves in other parts of the world.

I must admit to being wary when I see people not wearing masks in public, given that this measure (which I believe should have been introduced during the first wave back in March) has been a significant factor in reducing the rate of transmission. Even though, as from this week, masks are no longer mandatory outdoors (but will continue to be required indoors (shops, cinemas, etc.) and on public transport, I will continue to be on my guard. If people get offended at that, then all I can say is they don’t know where I have been, and I don’t know where they have been – I’m not yet willing to trust everyone on face value. (Reference the recent problems of people lying about their exact whereabouts during contact tracing.)

The general willingness to comply with the lock-down measures, and the resulting public wariness about opening up again, prompted my significant other to describe this as a form of Stockholm Syndrome. We have become conditioned to our circumstances, even against our own will or inclinations, and continue to act in lock-down mode (social distancing, self-isolating, avoiding public gatherings) despite the lifting of restrictions. I know from the few social engagements I have had over the past couple of weeks, including with family members and long-standing friends, there is some awkwardness in greetings and face to face interactions as we become accustomed to COVID-Safe etiquette.

There is also the challenge of re-entry as we emerge from lock-down. When the first lock-down was eased in June, notwithstanding the partial relaxation, I continued to maintain my distance. I anticipated that some people would over-compensate and even go overboard in their rush to “get back on the beers”, and start socialising again in large numbers. It felt like people forgot that as with deep-sea diving, if you don’t decompress gradually, you can get the bends. That’s what appears to have happened in a number of the hot-spots which led to the second wave, as evidenced by significant transmission rates in domestic settings.

One podcast I heard recently was recorded by an academic who studies people working in long periods of isolation (Antarctica, Space Station). A key part of her research is in helping them to re-adjust to their new environment as they emerge back into the community. So we in Melbourne will need to keep re-calibrating over the coming months as we establish a balance between comfort and caution.

As we head into the summer holidays, the next challenge for many employers and their staff will be in going back to the office, once the “work from home directive” is lifted.

Next week: Antler Virtual Demo Day

Is the Party over?

In the wake of allegations and revelations concerning election shenanigans, branch stacking, dodgy donations, and other improper behaviour by MPs, our trust in the democratic process is being severely challenged.

At the heart of the democratic process are the core principles of universal suffrage, and the open nomination and free election of individual candidates. However, in reality, it’s the party system that gets people elected, even though political parties are not mentioned in the Australian Constitution.

Thanks to factional disputes, evidence of corruption and general party machinations, I don’t believe voters are being well-served by their elected representatives. The highly partisan nature of party politics is making it increasingly difficult to build consensus or build inclusive, progressive and sustainable policy outcomes – even within the same party!

At the risk of making a huge generalisation, the problem I have with most politicians is that they have to play the party game in order to get selected, elected and re-elected. Thus they are overly beholden to the party that “backs” them (factional elements and all) rather than the electorates they purport to represent.

Look what happened to both Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull during their (brief) terms as Prime Minister: neither had a sufficient power base in their respective parties that they could rely on for support. (Both essentially came unstuck on energy and climate policies. And interesting to note that despite their differences whilst in office, they seem to have found a modicum of mutuality around media ownership – and I’m sure they agree on a whole lot more, they just aren’t allowed to admit it in public.)

Also, it’s a paradox that once elected (especially to leadership roles) most politicians seem to lose the power of natural speech. Instead, they feel compelled to use tortuous and convoluted verbiage to avoid saying what they actually think, because the internal logic and policy constraints of party-think over-rules common sense.

Over the years, I’ve heard various politicians speaking at first hand at non-party and non-Parliamentary events, including Keating, Hockey, Tanner, Turnbull, and Morrison. As a general observation, they are far more engaging, authentic and sincere when they are away from the hustings, pressers or dispatch boxes. It seems as if they all appear to lose a huge part of their humanity as a result of elected office, and the strictures of the party machine.

So has the political party had its day? Increasingly, that feels to be the case. Which is a dangerous thought, given the fundamental requirement to build policy platforms to take to the electorate, and the essential nature of Parliamentary democracy to have a functioning opposition to hold the Government accountable. Plus, we need a healthy democracy to ensure a pluralistic, inclusive, secular and liberal (small ‘L’) society. Dictatorships thrive in one party states, theocracies and autocracies alike.

Unfortunately, the media finds itself having to pander to the increasingly shrill, strident and destructive discourse of party politics. The press has to play along with “gallery briefings” and “doorstops” (i.e., selected disclosure at best, selected leaking at worst). I also hate the whole process of policy testing via party focus group soundbites rather than considered debate in Parliament.

I have seen some recent suggestions that political parties should be banned (dangerous precedents there…) or that election candidates shouldn’t reveal in advance their party affiliation. Whilst the latter idea has some appeal, how would we know where their backing comes from if they don’t disclose their party membership? Perhaps we should also ban all political donations, campaign funding and paid-for ads (and/or introduce stringent “truth in advertising” laws). Or, what if every candidate can only spend an equal amount, whose budget is drawn from Government funds, and only once they have secured the minimum amount of voter support to stand for election in the first place?

I don’t have the answers, and even with “non-party affiliation”, candidates would self-identify or be tagged as belonging to a particular vested interest. But the party system looks increasingly broken, and the nature of binary politics is not helping us to address or solve the enduring problems of our age.

Next week: Coming out of our shells

Are we there yet?

A couple of weekends ago in Melbourne, the question on many peoples’ minds was, “Are we there yet?” Namely, had the rate of new Covid-19 cases slowed down to the point where we could start to emerge from one of the longest and strictest lock-downs in the world? The answer was, “Yes, but not to the satisfaction of the government and their public health advisers.” So the opening up was pushed back again, having been brought forward by the very same government. It felt like the goal posts had been moved, and despite the huge sacrifices made by the general population, we were being asked to take a “cautious pause”.

No wonder some people got a bit uptight, and it took some tedious questioning from the media to establish what the Premier could have said at the outset of his umpteenth daily press conference. Yes, the Premier was tired, and he had been up late the night before, and he’d done over 100 pressers on the trot by that point. But you could hear and see the exasperation in his voice and in his body language as he realised how he’d managed to miscommunicate what should have been positive news – i.e., “We’re very close, everyone, and thank you all for your efforts, but just to be absolutely sure, please give me a couple of days more before I can confirm the decisions the government have already made.”

At the time of writing, people in Melbourne are still under pandemic restrictions, some of which have been in place since March:

  • If you can work from home, you must work from home
  • There is a limit on the number of people who can come to your home
  • There is also a limit on the size of gatherings in public
  • You can’t travel more than 25km from home
  • You can’t travel outside the Greater Melbourne area
  • Retail and hospitality are only allowed to open under strict conditions
  • Everyone must wear a face mask in public

And while there are some exceptions to each of the above, under the current State of Emergency, the government can rescind or reimpose each and every condition, or add new ones as they deem appropriate – including re-introduction of the overnight curfew, which seems to have been a political decision as much as one made on grounds of public health or public order.

I should say that I was in favour of the first lock-down in Victoria. In fact, I was actually glad that the Victorian Premier took a more conservative approach than some of his counterparts, which meant that during lock-down #1, Victoria appeared to be doing a much better job than NSW in containing the spread of the virus, when comparing the daily number of new cases in March and April. But I think the Victorian government should have gone harder when they had the chance, to nip it in the bud:

Charts sourced from The Guardian

However, masks weren’t made compulsory until much later during the so-called second wave, and lock-down #2. There could be several reasons for this:

  • Medical opinion was divided as to the efficacy of masks
  • The government wanted to reserve supplies for medical and other front line workers
  • There was inadequate public supply, partly because stocks had been diverted to regions impacted by the summer bush fires (and, initially, some local stocks had been donated to aid projects and sent overseas to China)
  • There were already too many other social behaviour changes that were needed, and which were deemed a higher priority

I’m not sure why there is still so much local resistance to wearing masks in public. Many people think it’s an infringement of their civil liberties, or they question the science, or they simply don’t like being told what to do. For men, I wonder if they feel that wearing a mask somehow emasculates them? For women, does it make them feel even more invisible than they already are in society? And for the ardent civil libbers, don’t any of them understand the concept of the mutual duty of care we each owe to our fellow citizens (even the self-styled, self-sovereign ones)? Having spent a lot of time in Asia, where social norms mean it is quite common to see people wearing masks in public, I guess I am less resistant to the idea. So much so, that I started wearing them in Melbourne before they became mandatory.

Of course, over 90% of locally-acquired cases which caused the second wave of new infections were directly the result of the failed hotel quarantine programme in two Melbourne hotels. I’ve commented on this fiasco before, and now the recent Board of Inquiry set up to investigate what happened has asked for an extension before delivering its verdict, owing to the late submission of evidence by key witnesses, including civil servants, public officials and elected representatives. As I wrote previously, the decision to engage private security to manage the quarantine programme is not the issue – it’s the decision-making process itself (referred to as “creeping assumptions”), and the oversight of the programme once it was established.

At this stage, we still don’t know who made the decision to hire private security companies; it’s not entirely clear which government department had oversight of the programme, as there was confusion and poor communication between departments; it’s also not clear whether the chosen security companies were on existing lists of Commonwealth- or State- approved contractors – and if they weren’t, what criteria were applied to employ them? And how did the other states manage to avoid the same level of community transmission that could have come from their own quarantine measures?

Anyone who has worked in or around government procurement will know how difficult it is to get on a contractor “panel”, and even then, the tendering process can be arduous and opaque. From my own experience, governments often use RFI/RFP/RFQ processes to glean as much intelligence as they can (with a view to keeping the project in-house), or to simply drive down the price, rather than to get the most qualified supplier at the best and most appropriate commercial rate. (And of course, there are examples of ex-civil servants forming their own businusses in order to tender for work they used to allocate – using their insider knowledge to the detriment of other bidders. In some cases, the civil servants don’t even wait to leave office….)

I appreciate there is a widely-held view that the breakdown in the hotel quarantine programme was not the only or direct cause of the second wave in Melbourne; but even if it were, it was the failure of the Commonwealth government to manage properly the private aged care facilities under their jurisdiction, which in turn revealed huge vulnerabilities in that sector, leading to the death of around 800 elderly Victorian residents from Covid-19. While I don’t doubt the inadequacies in aged care “settings”, I would have more sympathy with this argument if we had seen the same level of infections in aged care facilities in other states, particularly NSW, given that each state is under the same regime. The “mishaps” of the hotel quarantine programme sit front and centre as the root causes of the second wave, leading to the much severer lock-down #2.

Meanwhile, although the Premier likes to thank everyone for “doing the right thing” during the lock-down, he and his administration had a highly subjective attitude towards those members of the public who clearly weren’t doing the right thing. At times the rhetoric was merely ambivalent; other times it was highly ambiguous; occasionally it was disingenuous (if not wrong). This inconsistency and selective admonishment helped create further confusion among the public about how/when the various lock-down restrictions would be enforced. Worse, it sowed the seeds of growing discontent and underlying resentment in many parts of the community. And not helped by the apparent assertion that community cases among health care workers were all acquired in domestic “settings”, rather than in workplace “settings”.

Some of the other factors that may have contributed to Victoria’s second wave (and which have inter-state and national implications going forward as the domestic borders begin to re-open) include:

  • A highly centralised public health system (the current Premier was formerly the state Minister for Health, so no doubt he will have some views on that)
  • Inadequate PPE supplied to front-line medical staff and health workers in hospitals and clinics
  • Poor inter-departmental and inter-agency communication and co-ordination (plus those “creeping assumptions”)
  • A poor culture of “managing up” within ministerial offices (oh, and those “creeping assumptions”)
  • Confusion over respective roles and responsibilities, for example, as between the Chief Health Officer, the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Preventive Health Officer
  • “Track and trace” systems not fit for purpose
  • Lack of common definitions across the country – e.g., hot spot, complex case, mystery case, locally acquired case, quarantine and isolation periods, close contact, etc.
  • Lack of common IT systems for “track and trace” – so without inter-state interoperability, how is that going to work as people start traveling around the country again?

One “common” definition that definitely needs to be established is what constitutes a “household”? I’m not sure if there is a practical legal definition – maybe the Census form is one point of reference? (Perhaps another “test” is the supermarket offer, which usually says “only 1 per household”?) I would have said that a “household” is defined as a group of people who ordinarily live in the same dwelling or residence (whether a house, apartment, unit, rooming house, care home or hostel), regardless of whether they are related to one another, and regardless of whether they consider themselves as “living together”. Conversely “household” does not automatically mean everyone in your immediate or extended family. Where the lines have become blurred is when family members are frequently in each other’s homes for the purposes of sharing meals, care-giving or child-minding. The issue is not one of mere semantics – as we have seen, it is critical both in terms of preventing community transmission, and in enforcing quarantine and isolation measures.

Finally, I should also stress that I am very grateful to be living in Australia at present during this global pandemic, especially given the situation in many other countries. But at the risk of sounding parochial, I really would like to understand why Victoria got it so wrong (and has had to endure a second and onerous lock-down), and how NSW (so far) appears to have got it just about right.

Next week: From Brussels With Love (Revisited)

Golden Years

This week I turned 60, which in the Chinese Zodiac means this is my Golden Year (I’m a Metal Rat, to be precise). Despite the global pandemic, and the challenges of having spent the best part of the last 7 months in Melbourne lock-down, I would say that this year I have been more fortunate than many others. For which I am grateful.

Golden Years – Image sourced from Discogs

But with more time for reflection on what this milestone might signify, I have been thinking about the circumstances in which I find myself – whether it’s true that “60 is the new 40”, or is it all downhill from here?

My own father left full-time employment before he was 60. And although he had planned to do some part-time consulting work in his semi-retirement, he ended up volunteering for numerous not-for-profit organisations, for the next 25 years. This included lengthy stints serving on various boards and committees, at times almost a full-time job in itself. I’m sure he found this work to be fulfilling and rewarding, alongside his U3A classes and other social activities, but I’m not certain it’s how he intended to spend his retirement. It seems like he fell into this type of role, and since he was good at it, people kept asking him to do more, and he couldn’t always say no.

On the other hand, my paternal grandfather, who ran a small building company, died before he was 50, so I never knew him. While my maternal grandfather had an erratic employment history (not helped by the 1930s depression and war-time disruption), and was still working in manual jobs until he passed away in his late 60s.

I left my last corporate job when I was 50. At first, I thought I would look for a new full-time role, but the combination of the fall-out from the GFC and an implicit age barrier made that less likely the longer I looked. Some of the job interviews I attended revealed a significant prejudice towards older candidates: either their experience represented a threat to incumbents; or their past seniority meant they were unlikely to be hands-on, and/or less adaptable to new technology and new working practices.

Realising I was heading into self-employment (comprising part-time, contract, temporary, casual, freelance and consulting roles) I decided to reorganise my affairs, in order to sustain this new lifestyle. A key reason for seeking another full-time corporate gig would have been to service my mortgage, which didn’t really make sense. I was fortunate that I was able to restructure my finances, and effectively live debt-free. This gave me the flexibility to do some retraining, and to venture into the start-up world, which is where I was able to apply my skills and experience more creatively than in a corporate environment. This is how I came to encounter new technology and new opportunities in the form of FinTech, Blockchain and Cryptocurrency. And the rest is history (thus far…)

I appreciate that not everyone has the same opportunities; and working in disruptive industries or joining a start-up is not for everyone, either. But I also know that if I hadn’t made similar or significant career changes (and personal choices) over the past 35 years, I wouldn’t be in a position to be enjoying a golden period of my life right now.

Next week: Startmate Virtual Demo Day