The Bitcoin halving – what happened?

Last Monday, May 11, at around 19:23 UTC, the third Bitcoin halving occurred. This event is currently scheduled to happen approximately every four years, and is a core mechanism in Bitcoin’s protocol. In short, combined with the finite supply of bitcoin (BTC), the halving acts as an anti-inflationary measure by reducing the number of BTC payable to the miners who confirm each block of transactions, and maintain the integrity of the blockchain ledger. By using dedicated, high-powered computers to solve Bitcoin’s complex algorithms, the miners earn BTC as rewards for their efforts (and to help recoup their energy costs). As a result, the halving is an integral component in measuring key metrics in BTC’s performance, including pricing, supply and mining profitability. What happened around the time of the halving provides for some interesting analysis before and after the event.

BTC price dropped dramatically just prior to the latest halving event – the above graph is plotted using the hourly closing value of Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index.

The halving is programmed to occur after every 210,000 blocks, which themselves are “mined” approximately every 10 minutes. Last week’s third halving was triggered when block number 629,999 was confirmed – from block 630,000 onward, the block reward reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block, and is designed to continue halving until the block reward reaches 1 Satoshi (0.00000001 BTC).

Usually, financial markets have already priced in events such as the halving, so traders don’t expect the event itself to have an immediate impact on price. (Think of the halving as just one type of “corporate action” that is peculiar to cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Others might include hard forks, coin burns, and token lock ups.) As with company results and profit announcements, traders and analysts are usually prepared for the best (or worst).

However, leading up to the latest halving, BTC briefly touched a 3-month high of US$10k, before going through an almost typical “market correction” of a 20% decline immediately prior to the halving event. BTC has since recovered some of those losses, and in any case, the price performance before and after each halving event has become yet another indicator of long-term price movement, as the following chart illustrates:

Other metrics to watch include: “hash rate” (the degree of difficulty, and therefore the amount of computing power, to solve the algorithms and mine each block); transaction fees (if miners can’t earn as much from mining activity, they are expected to start increasing their network fees); the price of electricity (as an input cost to mining); and even the cost of computing power itself (as older machines become less efficient and therefore less profitable, while newer, more powerful and more expensive processors come to market).

Indeed, different scenarios used to predict the exact date of the next halving are largely based on the hash rate, which has been relatively volatile before and since the halving, and transaction fees likewise escalated (and then settled down again) around the time of the halving. Key data to track as part of halving analysis and forecasting can be seen in the table below from Brave New Coin:

Other interesting developments around the time of this latest halving include a legendary hedge fund manager reported to be buying BTC as a hedge against inflation; an increase in open interest on CME’s BTC futures contracts (assumed to be coming from institutional clients); and an intriguing message attached to block 629,999 (“NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed’s Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue”). Given the recent quantitative easing measures pursued by many governments and central banks in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, this choice of headline echoed the message attached to the genesis or very first Bitcoin block, mined in 2009, soon after the GFC (“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”).

Finally, as more data and analysis attaches to the halving events, they form the basis of a fundamental aspect of understanding how financial instruments perform over time – giving rise to the BTC equivalent of a 1, 5 or 10 year yield curve, which in turn will create more sophisticated derivatives and hedging tools, and another level of comfort for traditional and institutional investors.

(My thanks to friends and colleagues at Brave New Coin and Apollo Capital.)

Next week: “How do I become a business strategist?”

 

 

Crypto House Auction

Earlier this month, through my work with Brave New Coin, I was lucky enough to attend the first live property auction to be conducted in cryptocurrency. Although the property was passed in on the day, the event generated enough interest and PR value that it will surely be only a matter of time before more large ticket assets are transacted in this way.

Image sourced from LJ Hooker

Let’s not forget that it’s nearly 9 years since Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two pizzas (then valued at about US$41).

Although we may not yet be paying for our morning espresso with Bitcoin, a growing number of merchants are enabling customers to pay for goods and services with crypto, via payment platforms and intermediaries such as Living Room of Satoshi, and TravelbyBit. And services such as Coin Loft and CoinJar make it easier to buy and sell the most popular cryptocurrencies without having to set up accounts on multiple exchanges.

Meanwhile, the house in Casuarina, on the northern coast of New South Wales, was passed in at 457 BTC (A$3.4m). The property was listed by LJ Hooker, and the auction was facilitated by TrigonX and Nuyen, while Brave New Coin supplied real-time market data convert the crypto bids to Australian dollars.

Next week: Demo Day #1 – Startupbootcamp

 

FinTech Exchange, Chicago

Now in its fourth year, Barchart’s FinTech Exchange* event seems largely designed to address the specific needs of the Chicago trading community: technology and data vendors; brokers and intermediaries; and commodities, futures and derivatives markets – with an emerging thread of Blockchain and crypto.

In fact, the Keynote Speaker, Dr. Richard Sandor, spoke of Blockchain as being as significant as the invention of double-entry bookkeeping, the launch of stock markets, the introduction of electronic trading, and the creation of financial derivatives combined.

Other topics included: the evolution of global financial markets; the threat or potential of enterprise Blockchain and FinTech solutions; the role of cryptocurrency exchanges; understanding big data and data analytics; deploying AI and machine learning within FinTech; and the rapid expansion of API solutions as products and services in their own right (not just as a means of data delivery).

There was also a panel discussion with the winners of the previous day’s Startup Exchange pitch event.

On behalf of Brave New Coin, I ran a series of round-table discussions on the current state of cryptocurrencies, token sales and digital assets; and the prospect of so-called security tokens (a topic which is sure to feature in this blog in coming months).

Finally, the notion of “alt data” is gaining attention, and not just among hedge funds. In part a by-product of big data (how to make sense of all this data), alt data is set to become the high-octane fuel for generating yield (if data is the new oil).

* Declaration of interest: Barchart syndicates Brave New Coin news and technical analysis content

Next week: Corporate purpose, disruption and empathy

 

Startup Exchange, Chicago

As part of its annual FinTech Exchange event in Chicago last month, Barchart* ran the Startup Exchange pitch competition, where 16 hopefuls competed in front of a stellar panel of judges.

The presentations in order of appearance were:

Mercaris – A market data and trading platform for niche agri-products e.g., organic, non-GMO, certified and other niche food products and commodities where identity preservation (IP) is critical.

KTS Operations – A configurable software development solution for data handling and trading. It aims to automate redundant data tasks, such as putting CPU processing on a Blockchain.

HALO – Is a platform for trading structured notes. Currently working with 10 banks and 5,000 financial advisors.

UCX – Offers a consolidated market place and platform for buying Cloud services.

Demand Derivatives Corp – Allows clients to design new derivative instruments for listing on futures exchanges, as compared to standard futures and options contracts. As well as supporting unique instrument design, the service focuses on IP protection, exchange listing and liquidity.

UpTick Technology – Identifying the in-house talent gap at many firms, this spreadsheet-based analytical tool integrates with any data set, multiplies internal development capacity and supports data distribution within the client organization.

MaterialsXchange – Is a raw commodities exchange offering a B2B e-marketplace to digitize and automate trading data. It features a live, two-sided (bid/offer) venue with full execution and delivery, plus connectivity to ancillary services. First product is a lumber market place.

Coinifide – Has launched a P2P crypto trading and auction market place, combining elements of a social trading platform with an emphasis on providing investor education, It features key influencers and subject-matter experts and a simulator to replicate trading strategies.

Upper Room Technology – Is a new analytics solution for professional bond traders, with algo-based modelling and trade execution services.

Tipigo – A decision-support and information tool aimed at self-directed investors and day traders. It combines machine learning and fundamental research (450+ data sources tracking 8,300 US companies) to screen and funnel investment strategies, with trade execute via 8 traditional brokers.

TrendyTrade – Designed to encourage millennials to invest, it aggregates 400+ data sources, as well as Twitter, StockTwits and traditional media. An AI-based algo model makes recommendations, and explains why a specific stock might be moving. Currently has 30,000 users (under a freemium model) and boasts 79% accuracy.

Peak Soil Indexes – Aiming to “democratize farmland”, this is all about so-called “precision agriculture” – financializing farmland, creating a new asset class and offering a passive investment product, tracked by their own farmland index. It recognizes the demand for farmland, while offsetting some of the inherent risks of highly volatile crop prices.

SixJupiter – This is text-based robo advice platform. Focuses on liquidity, diversification and aggressive growth. Data suggests that 36% of the US population don’t get financial advice.

FreightWaves – A trucking futures marketplace, developed in response to a lack of market transparency and the corporate headwind of freight costs. Combines insights from market trends, regulatory factors and the impact of new technology. Primarily a content site, the service has achieved 1 million paid views per month.

PanXchange – An OTC marketplace for physical commodities – agri, energy, food and metals. Provides Instant access to realtime and historic data, for price discovery and for
trading futures and derivatives. Live data includes bid/offer spreads and trades (as opposed to traditional price reporting agencies. Its first key product has been a weekly benchmark price for Frac Sand.

Matrix Execution Technologies – Trading solution for active traders in equities, futures and options. Includes order management and executions services, especially for trading spot markets against listed contracts (such as CME and CBOE Bitcoin futures). Aimed as family offices and HNWIs.

Based on the judges’ verdict, the winners were:

1. PanXchange
2. Coinified
3. FreightWaves

* Declaration of interest: Barchart syndicates Brave New Coin news and technical analysis content

Next week: FinTech Exchange, Chicago