Bitcoin – to fork or not to fork?

Anyone following the crypto-currency markets this past two weeks will be fully aware that this has been a turbulent time for Bitcoin and other blockchain assets. First, the SEC published its Report on the DAO.  Second, there was a significant arrest in connection with the Mt Gox failure. And third, Bitcoin underwent a fork which has resulted in a new version, known as Bitcoin Cash. Meanwhile, at the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin itself is testing renewed highs, and continues to enjoy a 3-month long rally.

What implications do each of these developments have for the digital asset industry?

Photo by Andre Chinn – Image sourced from Flickr under Creative Commons

The Mt Gox-related arrest came as Japanese authorities began separate criminal proceedings against the former head of the failed exchange. These developments underscore two things: 1) as with any complex financial fraud investigation, bringing the culprits to justice takes time. 2) exploiting the financial system for ill-gotten gain is not exclusive to crypto-currencies – just ask investors in Australia’s CBA bank how they feel about losing nearly 4 per cent of the value of their shares in one day on the back of a money laundering scandal.

It also means that as regulators play catch-up, exchanges, brokers and other participants in the crypto-currency markets will need to ensure that they are updating their security and privacy systems (to prevent future hacks) while ensuring they comply with AML/KYC/CTF provisions. No bad thing, to instil confidence and trust in this emerging asset class, which is entering a new phase of maturity.

The SEC Report on the DAO, meanwhile, has put ICO’s (Initial Coin Offering) and TGE’s (Token Generation Event) on notice that in some cases, these products will be treated as securities, and will be subject to the same regulation as public offers of shares etc. As a result, token issuance programs will need to structure their sale processes to be either fully compliant with, or exempt from, the regulations; at the very least, they must remove any suggestion that these tokens are capable of creating security interests in financial or dividend-bearing assets, unless that is the express intention. (In some cases, these tokens are sold as membership services, software and IP licenses, or as network access permits. Any “return” to the buyer comes from the network value effects, service discounts or user rewards, similar to frequent flyer schemes and customer loyalty programs.)

Again, this suggests a coming of age for digital assets, and a growing maturity in the way token sales can be used as an alternative to VC funding and other traditional sources of raising operating capital and project financing.

The Bitcoin fork was hugely anticipated, with a mix of fear and excitement – fear because of the unknown consequences, excitement at the prospect of Bitcoin holders getting “free money” in the form of “Bitcoin cash“, via a 1:1 issue. Without getting into the technical details, the fork was prompted by the need to increase Bitcoin’s blockchain processing speed and transaction capacity; and while nearly everyone connected to Bitcoin’s infrastructure agreed on the need to accelerate block performance, there was a schism as to how this should be achieved. Some exchanges said they would not recognise the new currency, and only some Bitcoin miners said they would engage with it (especially as the cost of mining the new asset was more expensive than Bitcoin core). In addition, most exchanges were advising their customers not to attempt performing any Bitcoin transactions for several days, before and after the fork, until the system settles down again.

In the aftermath of the fork, at least one more exchanges has said it will probably offer some support Bitcoin cash; while due to the nature of the fork, Bitcoin cash’s own block processing time was something like 6 hours – meaning transactions could not be confirmed, and holders of the new asset could not easily transfer or sell it, even if they wanted to. It feels like a combination of a liquidity squeeze, a trading halt, and a stock split resulting from a very complex corporate action.

So far, the value of Bitcoin has held up, while the value of Bitcoin cash has steadily declined (despite an early spike), almost flat-lining to less than one-tenth of the value of Bitcoin:

Relative value of Bitcoin cash (BCH) to Bitcoin (BTC) – Market Data Chart sourced from Brave New Coin

I’m not a “Bitcoin absolutist“, as I think different currency designs and technical solutions will continue to emerge based on specific use cases. These products will continue to co-exist as markets come to understand and appreciate the different attributes and functionality of these digital assets.

As a consequence of recent events, some new token projects are refining the design of their issuance programs, more legal opinions are being commissioned, and raise targets are being adjusted in light of the current climate. But the number of new projects coming to market shows no sign of abating, and the better projects will have successful and sustainable sales. The total market cap of all digital assets is now well over $100bn (although the data reveals something of an 80:20 scenario – the top few assets account for the bulk of that value); and more institutional investors and asset managers are taking a greater interest in this new asset class.

NOTE: The comments above are made in a purely personal capacity, and do not purport to represent the views of Brave New Coin or any other organisations I work with. These comments are intended as opinion only and should not construed be as financial advice.

Next week: Bringing Back Banter   

 

 

The FF17 Semi Finals in Melbourne

As part of the recent Melbourne Startup Week, Next Money hosted the Melbourne heat of the FF17 pitch contest, to decide which local FinTech startup will compete at the FF17 finals in Hong Kong later this week.

screen-shot-2017-01-15-at-8-15-03-pmAt the outset, I should declare an interest, as I myself was one of the pitch contestants, but hopefully that doesn’t preclude me from commenting on the event. The competing startups were as follows (as listed on the event Meetup page):

AirWallex

This payments solutions provider has featured in my blog before. Since the last time I saw AirWallex pitch, the market for cross-border remittance and payment solutions has drawn a lot of attention. First, the growing opportunity for exporters to market products and services to Chinese consumers and tourists means that payment platforms like AirWallex (and others like Novatti, LatiPay and Flo2Cash) are partnering with Chinese payment gateways such as WeChat Pay, AliPay, JDPay and Union Pay). Second, cross-border remittance services has become a key use case for Bitcoin and other digital currencies (as evidenced by the recent partnership between Novatti and Flexepin).

Analyst Web

Still in private beta, Analyst Web is aiming to disrupt the market structure (and payment model) for equity research. By enlisting qualified CFAs to write bespoke investment reports on listed companies, then distribute them via subscription services, Analyst Web claims to be bringing quality, objectivity and value for money to this investor service. Currently, investors have to rely on either brokers (who may offer “free” reports to their clients under soft dollar arrangements) to provide research on individual stocks; or subscribe to independent research houses (such as Morningstar). Typically, neither brokers nor the research houses cover the full market – tending to focus on the bigger stocks and those included in benchmark indices. Of course, companies themselves use investor relations services to issue commentary on their market performance and prospects, but these communications perhaps lack objectivity. There are also other models, such as the ASX Equity Research Service, whereby research providers are “sponsored” by the stock exchange to provide reports on qualifying companies to boost market coverage. Some of the challenges Analyst Web will need to overcome are: investor willingness to pay for research; market credibility and acceptance of their reports; and sustainable financial models that appropriately compensate the analysts without compromising independence and objectivity.

Proviso

Proviso has also been mentioned in my blog before, and they continue to impress with their solution to take friction out of the documentation processes for loan origination, and their ability to secure more financial institutions as clients. In my previous commentary, I noted that Proviso risked being disintermediated by an industry-owned utility. While I still think that is a possibility, I also see that the combination of Blockchain solutions (for distributed ledgers and bank data feeds) and more open APIs for financial data and account information may mean that customers themselves may be empowered to drive the process, since it will be easier for them to demonstrate their creditworthiness and establish their cashflow status, but also have better control over the disclosure of their data.

DragonBill

DragonBill, an invoicing solution for SMEs, is yet another of the FF17 contestants to appear in my blog, most recently when they presented at Startup Victoria’s regular pitch night. In addition to offering both direct payment and escrow options for micro-businesses and sole traders, DragonBill continues to mine an interesting niche market among sports clubs and associations – the reason being that many club members are themselves sole traders. As part of its future developments, the business is scoping a solution to help clients manage their superannuation obligations, and to provide informed advice on cashflow management.

BreezeDocs

Similar to Proviso, BreezeDocs is a document automation solution for lenders, although currently focusing on mortgage origination. And like Proviso, at the heart of the solution is the ability to streamline the extraction and processing of data from customer documents. On top of a core OCR capability, BreezeDocs also claims to be using machine learning to train their systems on different document types, formats, structure and content. Despite the use of ETL processes within financial institutions, the disparate nature of financial products and documentation; the way customer, product and transaction data is often maintained in different systems; and the fact that customers will often have accounts and products with different providers can undermine the need for standardised processes.

Vestabyte

As I commented in my previous blog, equity crowding may be about to come into its own as a way to connect investors with entrepreneurs and startups. Vestabyte are certainly enthusiastic exponents of this method for raising capital, but legal constraints mean that their platform still has to operate under a unit trust model, rather than offering access to investments in the form of direct shares in specific assets, companies or ventures. This may change if the proposed legislation can get through Parliament, although it’s far from being a done deal. But in the absence of formal legislation, it sounds like a great opportunity for a FinTech startup seeking funding to test ASIC’s first licensing exemption under its sandbox regime….

coHome

By their own admission, coHome is very much a nascent business – one that is still defining its customer offering. At its heart, this shared ownership service provides a matching service for aspiring property owners, along with some standard documentation for a co-ownership agreement, known legally as a tenancy in common. With multiple parties to the property transaction and mortgage application, coHome aims to streamline the process, make it easier for buyers to connect with other interested parties, and provide customers with appropriate legal safeguards. It’s clearly an admirable objective, and one that deserves to gain attention. But monetizing the service may prove challenging, unless coHome takes a commission from the mortgage providers, lawyers and conveyancers?

BugWolf

Not strictly speaking confined to the FinTech sector, nevertheless BugWolf, a tool for managing user-acceptance testing, has managed to gain traction with at least one of Australia’s Big 4 banks. Using gamification, competitions and other techniques to recruit, engage and manage teams of testers, BugWolf claims to support all aspects of functionality testing across software, websites and mobile apps. Combined with robust reporting and analytics, BugWolf can also help clients achieve shorter product development cycles.

Brave New Coin

I joined the team at Brave New Coin (BNC), a provider of market data for digital assets, in early 2016. So, it was the first time I have pitched, outside of hackathons, client presentations and sales conferences. And the fact that BNC was a last-minute confirmation for this event made it an even more interesting experience. Established about 3 years ago by a team of founders with an interesting mix of publishing, Bitcoin and full stack development experience, BNC has built a suite of data APIs (market prices, indices, exchange rates and analytics) for Bitcoin and most other crypto-currencies and Blockchain assets. While the APIs are typically used by developers, the growing interest in digital assets among brokers, investors and asset managers means that market data on these new asset classes is in demand, and BNC is busily building distribution partnerships and subscription deals with traditional brokers, market data vendors and exchanges. Recent price fluctuations for Bitcoin may suggest continued speculation in this currency, but the launch of investable and tradeable products such as CFDs, futures, ETFs and other derivatives also suggest that digital assets are starting to achieve broader market acceptance.

BankVault

Unlike other solutions to defeat hackers and hoaxers (e.g., anti-virus software, spam-filters, VPNs and proxy servers), BankVault uses virtual machine technology to protect customers’ bank details when they transact online. This means a “new and instant” machine is created for one-time use only, each time a customer launches the BankVault service. Offering both individual subscriptions and enterprise solutions, the business is in the process of launching in the USA.

Conclusion

The winner, based on the judges’ votes, was BugWolf, which came as something of a surprise to a number of the other contestants, myself included. Without wishing to sound churlish, this event was supposed to be about the future of finance (hence FF17…), so it would seem reasonable that the winner would be based in FinTech (as opposed to TechTech?). The result (although highly deserved and based on an impressive pitch), also reinforced my sense that this event did not draw the “usual” FinTech or startup audience in Melbourne, based on the many pitch nights and meetups I have attended over the past few years. From my perspective, neither was it an investor audience, nor a capital markets audience, meaning I wasn’t really sure who I was pitching to. I’m hoping that the organisers will reflect on this event, and look to make some changes for next year.

Next week: A few rules on pitching