The year ahead in Blockchain, crypto, FinTech….

I’m approaching my second anniversary working within the Blockchain and digital currency sector, but already it feels like a lifetime – such has been the pace at which the industry has grown and evolved.

The number (and size) of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in 2017 was staggering. The cryptocurrency markets were equally breathtaking for their price gains (and corrections), matched only by the speed and extent to which some regulators responded. It was a rollercoaster ride, but by the end of the year, it’s fair to say this new asset class had finally arrived.

(For a round-up of 2018 forecasts and predictions for the sector, my colleagues at Brave New Coin have been publishing some handy guides.)

My personal (but far from unique) view on cryptocurrencies in general is that they represent a new asset class. As such we are seeing huge opportunities for investment and innovation, backed by Blockchain and other decentralized and distributed ledger technologies (DLT), as well as some truly innovative and disruptive solutions. There is still some hype, and considerable asset price volatility, plus pure investor speculation; but there are some great projects out there building solid business models; and sound investment cases for network protocols, industry utilities, scalable solutions and core platforms.

In 2018, I expect to see one or more of the following developments:

  1. A fully deployed, government-backed Blockchain project that will change the way citizens engage with public services
  2. A truly decentralized autonomous organisation that learns to make decisions for itself  (based on a set of dynamic, self-replicating governance rules) as to how resources are allocated, stakeholders are rewarded and participants are incentivized (for all its faults, the DAO was possibly the first new corporate structure since the joint stock company)
  3. Following Japan’s lead, more governments will recognise cryptocurrencies as legal forms of payment, while at least one Central Bank will issue a public digital currency as a form of legal tender (not just an inter-bank instrument)
  4. Traditional securities (equities, bonds, commercial paper, asset securitization) will be issued in the form of digital tokens (via a new form of Token Issuance Program) leading to wider distribution, fractional ownership and reduced cost of capital raising, plus streamlined share registry and custodial services, thanks to DLT
  5. Likewise, “traditional” digital tokens will be issued as formal securities, backed by new types of financial products, allowing for greater financial innovation and funding flexibility
  6. At least one crypto-backed ETF will list on a major exchange, along with more crypto-derivatives such as swaps and options.
  7. One or other crypto-currency will be adopted as a day-to-day payment solution for micro-payments

Only two or three years ago, none of the above seemed very likely, or at least not in the short-term. Today, there are multiple initiatives working across each of these trends. So this is not a case of “if”, but “when”.

Enjoy the ride!

Next week: Bring Your Own Change

 

Token Summit II San Francisco

While in the US this month, I attended Token Summit II in San Francisco, courtesy of Techemy, the parent company of Brave New Coin.

Apart from Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs (and of course, CryptoKitties), the main topics on Blockchain solutions, cryptocurrency trading, token issuance programs and digital asset management were:

Governance – bringing transparency, oversight and standards
Scalability – how to grow the technology in a sustainable way
Interoperability – compatibility and connectivity between chains
Regulation – especially of securities as tokens, and vice versa
Decentralized exchanges – making P2P trading truly viable
Metronome – the “first cross-blockchain cryptocurrency”
Messari – “EDGAR for cryptocurrencies”
Transaction computation vs verification – getting the balance/distinction right
Custody – what the institutional markets are looking for in this new asset class

Demonstrating the demand for access to industry thought leaders and information about the best and brightest projects, Token Summit could have filled a venue twice the size – a growth trajectory befitting the asset class.

Next week: MoMA vs SFMOMA

 

Consensus: Invest and Blockchain Expo

This week, some brief notes from the USA, where I am currently attending some blockchain and cryptocurrency events, courtesy of the team at Brave New Coin.

The first event was Consensus: Invest in New York. As one of my colleagues commented, every person and their lawyer seems to be doing an ICO – even while in the washroom, a hopeful issuer tried shoving a pitch deck into his free hand. This despite the ongoing regulatory questions surrounding, and noticeable investor indifference towards, some of these token sales.

The CME was prominent among the exhibitors, given their forthcoming Bitcoin futures. Not to be left out, NASDAQ managed to generate some noise in the Wall Street Journal about their own proposed Bitcoin derivatives. Separately, Bitcoin itself attracted headlines in the Journal and the Financial Times – on the back of fresh new trading highs.

Other exhibitors comprised cryptocurrency research providers and custodian services. More evidence that this new asset class is entering a new phase of maturity.

Across the country, in Silicon Valley, Blockchain Expo put on a major trade show and conference, in conjunction with the IoT and AI Expos. (If a similar event had been held say, 20-25 years ago, instead of Blockchain, IoT and AI the themes might have been servers, network connectivity and desktop productivity tools.)

A number of upcoming ICOs gamely pitched their wares, while several new flavours of distributed ledger projects were on display. Several of the latter claim to be addressing issues of scaling, interoperability and security – all topics that continue to keep blockchain experts busy.

Of course, in common with other FinTech and startup events of late, there was the usual smattering of presentations aiming to leverage AI, peer-to-peer, big data, distributed technologies, machine learning and decentralized solutions.

Next week: Token Summit II San Francisco

 

Bitcoin – Big In Japan

I spent the past week in Tokyo on behalf of Brave New Coin, meeting with various participants in the cryptocurrency industry – from exchanges to brokers, from industry bodies to information vendors, from connectivity providers to technology platforms. Given its share of Bitcoin trading volumes, and the legal developments currently in motion, Japan is now the focus of attention as it navigates towards a fully regulated and orderly cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin is now accepted in Bic Camera stores in Japan (Photo: Rory Manchee – all rights reserved)

On my previous visit to Japan, I commented on the extent to which it was still a cash economy – even major museums and galleries don’t accept plastic, and my pre-paid foreign currency card issued by a major Australian bank was only accepted at a limited number of ATMs: 7-Eleven, and Japan Post. But according to expats I spoke to last week, this situation has changed over the past couple of years.

One of the reasons I was given as to why Japan is taking a lead in regulating cryptocurrencies is its previous perception of having a somewhat lax approach to money laundering. Part of this might be explained by the limited technical integration and interoperability with the global banking system (somewhat akin to Japan’s approach to telecoms, where in the past, it was impossible for overseas visitors to use their mobile phones on the domestic network).

In addition, as China has cracked down on most things crypto, so has Bitcoin trading activity shifted to Japan. This growth in Bitcoin trading volumes can also be linked to Japan’s passion for retail forex trading, now expanding into crypto.

Earlier this year, the Japanese government passed legislation that recognises bitcoin as a legal form of payment. (Note: this does not mean that bitcoin is legal tender – shops do not have to accept it; but if they choose to take it as payment for goods and services, then it is no different to paying in cash or by credit card when it comes to things like consumer rights, for example.)

Later this month, the main regulator, the FSA is expected to announce new regulations to govern cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers. Currently, exchanges that accept Yen deposits for cash trading of crypto must be licensed as payment institutions. By the end of March 2018, my understanding is that all exchanges and brokers must be fully licensed to operate – for both cash trading, and futures and margin trading. Anywhere between 20 and 50 exchanges have applied for a license.

Currently, participants in the “legacy” securities and futures industry are either registered with the JSDA or the FFA. Likewise, it is expected that the FSA will appoint a similar self-regulating entity to have official oversight of the cryptocurrency markets, under the overarching authority of the FSA. However, there are two rival blockchain and cryptocurrency industry associations that are vying for this role – which is where things become a little political. One group claims to represent the “pure” crypto world, whereas the other might be seen to represent more of the traditional market. No doubt the FSA would prefer not to have to choose…

Key considerations for the FSA are retail investor protection, and market stability. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies is now around US$150bn. If we assume that 10% of these assets are held in Japan, when compared to the total capitalisation of the cryptocurrency exchanges themselves, this creates a significant risk for the FSA should there be a market collapse or a run on Yen-based crypto deposits.

Equally, the FSA does not want to stifle innovation in an area of financial services where Japan is keen to take the lead. For example, Japan has witnessed a couple of bitcoin-denominated corporate bonds (more like privately syndicated short-term commercial paper) that demonstrate an investor appetite for this new asset class.

Meanwhile, in preparation for this new regulatory environment, and in anticipation of the increased interest by major banks and asset managers, there is a project underway to create an institutional-strength order management platform connecting banks, brokers and exchanges. I also heard of offshore fund managers looking to launch a crypto-based ETF for distribution in Japan.

Finally, at the risk of blowing our own trumpet, Japan’s leading financial vendor, Quick is now quoting the Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) alongside other FX data it distributes from around the world:

 

NOTE: The comments above are made in a purely personal capacity, and do not purport to represent the views of Brave New Coin, its clients or any other organisations I work with. These comments are intended as opinion only and should not be construed as financial advice.

Next week: Tech, Travel and Tourism