Transition – post-pandemic career moves

Even before the latest lock-down v3.0 in Melbourne, one of the other members of my co-working space in the CBD decided they’d already had enough of being confined to a 5km radius, working from home, and other lock-down related restrictions. Having had their interstate travel curtailed over the past 12 months, and suffering from cabin fever, they have opted to spend the next few months living in and working from various Airbnb locations around regional Victoria. Even though they are used to WFH, recent experience has shown that they don’t need to be confined to one place. And this post-COVID shift in our work/life patterns (already being disrupted and enabled by remote working) is only increasing.

Likewise, a client I spoke to in the USA last week informed me that they had just settled into a new location on the west coast, and was “living the dream” of a nomadic existence.

More extreme is the recent example of a Guardian employee who, having had to travel from Sydney to the UK for a family funeral last year, then took several months to get back home (due to flight cancellations), but managed to keep working remotely from various European locations as he moved around to stay ahead of border closures.

Prior to this past weekend, and despite the city being out of Stage 4 lock-down for 3 months, private offices in Melbourne’s CBD have only been allowed to operate at 50% of capacity – the proposed move to 75% capacity has been put back. It means, for example, that even on a really good day, my local coffee shop is still only doing 60% of its pre-COVID business.

It’s my guess that the combination of office restrictions and many retail and hospitality businesses simply not bothering to re-open at all means the CBD is barely operating at 40-50%. It’s deceptive – some activities (e.g., construction) have continued pretty much unabated (even expanding while there is less traffic on the roads); while others have been shut down altogether (e.g., entertainment). Certainly food delivery services are still in demand, while some retail has been doing a bit better as customers appreciate the novelty of shopping in-person.

Monday to Friday in the CBD is like a bell-curve distribution – Mondays and Fridays are much quieter, as people choose to WFH part of the week. Which is challenging for employers, as they try to revert to “normal”. But assuming a mix of remote and on-site working continues, it probably means less overall demand for office space. (It’s also difficult to assess the impact of the CBD exodus on suburban hubs.)

So all that construction work suggests we will have an over-supply of commercial premises (offices, shops, restaurants and hotels).

Residential property is a similar story – student accommodation is far from full, as overseas students aren’t returning; and more inner-city apartment buildings are still going up, but there is something of an exodus from the city to regional and rural locations.

The latter tree- and sea-changes are being fueled by a number of factors: a desire to leave the city (which is more prone to lock-downs); low interest rates (so, cash out the equity in your suburban home and move to the country where your money buys you more); increased opportunity to WFH (see, 5G and the NBN have their benefits!); and a broader wish for a different work/life balance.

Unfortunately, this shift is also putting pressure on local housing supply – average property prices are going up faster in some regional centres than in the capital cities; and more nomadic lifestyles are driving up demand for short-stay accommodation. The combined effect is higher rental costs and reduced supply, tending to squeeze out the locals.

Ironically, we’ve heard farmers and primary producers in rural and regional Australia complain that they can’t get seasonal workers due to COVID restrictions on international visitors (especially students, back-packers and experienced fruit pickers). Conversely, we’re told that 90% of jobs lost after March last year have now been recovered – although this apparent rebound is mainly in part-time roles, not full-time positions. It would be interesting to see a detailed breakdown by industry, as some sectors (tourism, aviation, universities) are still struggling.

The hiatus (and disruption) brought about by COVID and subsequent lock-downs has no doubt prompted many people to reassess their careers: where do I want to live/work? what type of work do I want to do? which industries or companies are hiring? and for what roles? As part of a wider re- and up-skilling initiative, the Federal and State governments are offering a range of free vocational courses (mostly Cert I to IV programmes), as well as some enhanced “pathways” to trade apprenticeships.

While this is to be applauded, I can’t help feeling the effort is at least 5-10 years too late to address the technological, demographic and societal changes that began at the end of the last century, with the advent of the internet, cheaper technology, an ageing population, increased globalisation, inefficient taxation and tariff systems, and general economic restructuring. If nothing else, COVID has demonstrated the need for more resilience in the domestic economy, (and a reduced reliance on overseas imports and supply chains) such as smart manufacturing and food security.

Meanwhile, a friend of mine recently related that a nephew of his had dropped out of college (like many of his peers in the USA and elsewhere) and decided to become a self-taught expert in DeFi, as there is more chance of financial success (and career satisfaction) than obtaining an “off the shelf” bachelor degree….

Next week: Corporate Art

Revisiting Purpose

Enforced lock-down thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic has provided ample opportunity for each of us to reflect on our “purpose” – especially if we typically identify our purpose with going to the office or other workplace (and the time spent on our daily commute).

In addition to the mandatory furlough, the inability to do the everyday things we usually take for granted can create some sort of existential crisis. So even though many of us continue to work from home, there is a very practical purpose in having a structured routine (including the all-important daily exercise allowance!) – for both physical and psychological needs.

But this time of reflection also provides an opportunity to reassess our priorities, and re-calibrate what is important to us, once we get through the pandemic. It feels that the paradox of having more time on our hands, but fewer options as to what to do with it, might mean we should be jealously protective of how and where we spend it once we get the chance.

So some of the factors we may consider in deciding how we spend our time and how we define our purpose might include:

  • what have I really missed, and what can I do without?
  • what will sustain me, and what will be a drain on my resources?
  • what can support my personal development, and what will hold me back?
  • what can I do independently, and what will require collaboration?
  • what has engaged me, and what has bored me?
  • what new skills have I had to learn, and what will continue to be relevant?
  • what do I wish I had done more of (or less of) before the lock-down?

While “time spent” shouldn’t be the defining criteria of our purpose, as a valuable (and finite) resource, how we allocate our time should be a significant measure of what is important to us, and what enables us to pursue our purpose.

Next week: Three Wise Monkeys

Distractions during Lock-down

As Melbourne enters its second week of Stage 4 lock-down, I must admit to feeling a little frustrated by the whole “working from home” scenario. Even though, up until 18 months ago, I had worked from home for the previous 8 years, the past 6 months of enforced #WFH is starting to lose its appeal. The lack of social interaction is another factor, although I know we could be in a worse situation. This week I was supposed to be travelling overseas for a family wedding and to visit elderly parents – that’s not going to be happening for a while. In an attempt to cheer myself up, here are some lighter observations on how we have been keeping ourselves amused during lock-down.

  • Daily exercise – at least I can still get out for an hour’s walk each day, and perhaps grab a takeaway coffee in the process (but don’t take liberties by walking the 5kms with your mask off and empty latte cup in hand…)
  • Gadgets – online shopping has been a boon. I’ve acquired Bluetooth noise-cancelling headphones, a new iPad, a DAB+ radio, a stand-up desk, a ring-light, plus another batch of expensive Apple adaptors to cope with domestic hot-desking
  • Lounge wear – following on from the above, I haven’t worn a shirt with a collar, let alone a suit, in 6 months, so I’ve extended my informal wardrobe to embrace pyjamas that masquerade as lounge wear (or vice versa)
  • Hobbies – first it was sourdough, now my friends are into making butter, cheese and home-made gin. Others are into jigsaws, or acquiring puppies, while I read somewhere that sales of craft supplies are on the increase. Me, I’ve been catching up on home recording studio
  • Dine at home – I’m not a huge fan of takeaways (the food is often cold, and doesn’t travel well), but I’ve grown a liking for “prepare at home” meals that are keeping some local restaurants busy
  • Alcohol – latest data suggests daily consumption is up, which is understandable (but also a concern). I’ve been trying to maintain 2-3 AFD’s each week, and make sure I opt for quality over quantity
  • Clearance corner – I’m sure like me, most people have accumulated a pile of domestic items they no longer need; we are spending more time at home and discover the limits of our domestic space (and need to make room for the online shopping). Now we are waiting for the op-shops and council dumps to re-open…
  • Radio – I’ve mostly given up on TV; despite the “choice” presented by wall-to-wall streaming and end-to-end bingeing, I’ve actually found less to watch. Instead, I listen to more radio – ABC Jazz, SBS Chill, BBC Radio 4 Extra, and BBC Radio 6’s Freak Zone.
  • Small luxuries – if I can’t get to cafes and restaurants (and therefore, I’m not spending as much money on eating out), I figure I can bring some of those luxuries into my home. In addition to the Dine at home option above, I’ve also been buying quality produce from local suppliers – coffee beans, cheese, meat, small goods, wine (subject to the requisite numebr of AFD’s) and honey.
  • Reading – there have been some very timely novels published in the last 6-12 months, some of then scarily prescient.
  • Brain training – finally, because Lock-down is like Groundhog Month, I am getting into something of a daily routine, and with the lack of some external stimuli, I don’t want my brain to atrophy, so I’ve started using a brain training app – not sure of the results, but at least it passes a few more minutes…

Next week: Responsibility vs Accountability

 

 

#Rona19 – beyond the memes

More commentary on Covid-19 – at the time of writing, Victoria is at Stage 3 restrictions, with Stage 4 possible very soon. Generally, people seem to adapting to if not actually coping with this daily reality (although people are still flouting their quarantine obligations). But there is still some confusion on how to interpret, observe and enforce the social distancing measures, and of course, huge economic uncertainty remains for many people who have seen their working hours evaporate, especially if they are in vulnerable industries, and/or they can’t work from home.

Sign of hope? (Seen on my daily walk)

Meanwhile, the shutdown has prompted a fair number of less serious responses, from toilet paper memes, to “viral” GIFS, from parodies of “My Sharona” and “Bohemian Rhapsody”, to unfortunate examples of the downside of company video conferences while working from home.

But beyond the hashtags, what might we expect once we get through the current pandemic? Here is a somewhat random list of possible outcomes:

  • A renewed appreciation of personal space in public places – will we continue to observe such protocols where and whenever practical, as it becomes a community norm?
  • Greater respect for introverts – possibly better able to handle self-isolation, they are comfortable with their own company and don’t feel the need to seek out crowds  – social distancing does not represent an existential crisis, and they don’t rely on social situations for their personal validation.
  • Passenger airlines and cruise companies are toast – the tourism and travel industries will be hard hit, and may struggle to rebuild in their current form.
  • The online economy will get a boost  – restaurants and providores are already retooling to offer D2C food and meal deliveries (even cutting out the likes of Uber Eats, Deliveroo and Menu Log). Some brick and mortar retail is adapting fast, but will face a reduced share of available discretionary spending.
  • Naturally, digital services will thrive – from communication solutions to virtual classes, from remote working support services to telehealth. But bandwidth capacity and internet down/upload speeds remain a challenge in Australia.
  • The end of physical cash – if retailers prefer contactless payments (less contamination), what use are those notes and coins in your wallet?
  • A higher community standard for the individual duty of care we owe to each other – Covid-19 will certainly test the “duty of care” we owe to neighbours, colleagues, members of the public… if I knowingly infect someone, or act recklessly or negligently, can the victim sue me?
  • Likewise, the corporate social license to operate will be tested and re-cast – in light of monopolistic practices, price gouging, market abuse and disregard for the “new normal”, companies will need to re-assess many of their standard policies.
  • Increased use of facial recognition and other technology for surveillance purposes – if people cannot be trusted to observe their quarantine, self-isolation and social distancing obligations, the authorities will not shy away from further incursions into civil liberties that we currently take for granted.
  • A hybrid of on-site and working from home employment structures – not everyone will want to continue working remotely, nor will everyone be in a rush to head back to the office (or the daily commute), which will likely cause headaches for employers….

More on these themes next week….

Next week: The “new, new normal”