Unintended Consequences?

Last month, Melbourne City Council banned e-scooters for hire. The City’s Lord Mayor argues that the current trial needs to be re-set, as a result of increased traffic violations and personal injuries. So far, similar trials running in other local government areas adjacent to the City will continue, but they will no doubt be seeking to ensure the hire schemes are implemented and managed in a responsible, compliant and sustainable fashion, when the trials expire.

Despite the promised (and welcome) benefits of e-scooter hire schemes, I have yet to see current data that would support their continued operation. E.g., has the introduction of e-scooters reduced either the overall number of cars on the road, or the number of short car journeys under 2km?

I can see that e-scooters are probably popular with shift workers, largely because public transport services do not run at the times these commuters need them or where they need to go.

As well as living close to the City, I live in an adjacent LGA that is running a similar trial, so I have plenty of anecdotal evidence of the downside.

It’s not just users riding on pavements and in pedestrian-only areas with little care for those on foot. Many riders are carrying passengers (unlawfully) and choosing not to wear helmets (also unlawful). There appear to be a large number of joy riders, who often leave vehicles strewn across footpaths, rather than parking them responsibly. Then there are the helmets discarded without care or thought. Many of which probably end up in landfill, especially if they have been cracked or damaged through misuse. (A few months ago, I spoke to a Melbourne City Council street cleaner, and he admitted that if helmets are discarded like litter, they go into the general waste collection.)

I also see e-scooters for hire being lined up by their operators outside pubs and bars. I get that we don’t want people to drink and drive, but riding an e-scooter while drunk is hardly the answer!

I suspect that the obvious problems and misuse could have easily been anticipated, and even mitigated. Here are just a few suggestions:

1. Require all ride-share customers to have appropriate insurance. This could be done via the operator apps, and/or via a subscription model.

2. E-tag all helmets as well as the scooters themselves, so operators can keep track of their property. If I was an investor in these companies, I’d be concerned that they aren’t protecting their assets!

3. Require users to pass some sort of proficiency test – including basic road rules, and traffic regulations.

4. As well as limiting the vehicle speed, disable any e-scooter that is being driven on pedestrian-only footpaths or other “out of bounds” areas. The City of Melbourne and surrounding LGAs now have extensive cycle lanes, so there shouldn’t be any excuse for riding on pavements.

5. Consider attaching breathalysers to each scooter and applying weight limits on vehicles (to counter the problem of passenger over-loading).

Finally, the use of contributory negligence in assessing potential damages should be a default position. Indeed, any rider who causes an accident, injures a pedestrian or damages another vehicle or property, directly or indirectly as a result of the rider’s misuse or negligence should result in strict liability for all damages.

Next week: Ticket scalpers? Blockchain could fix that!

 

Tech, Travel and Tourism (revisited)

Just over two years ago, I posted a blog on how the tourism and travel industries needed to embrace the opportunities brought about by digital disruption. Having been on half a dozen overseas trips in the past 12 months, I can see that there have been some improvements in the traveler experience, but there is still a lot of room for improvement…

One of the biggest benefits has been the expanded integration of public transportation information into Google Maps. Navigation and route planning, right down to which platform to board from or which subway exit to take, has been a huge boost to the traveler UX. Many cities are now using integrated stored value cards for public transport, but limitations still exist: for example, some systems don’t make it that easy for overseas visitors to obtain the card itself, others make it hard to re-load other than by cash; while only a few systems, like Hong Kong and Japan, support multiple point-of-sale transactions for shops, restaurants and other services.

Another plus for frequent travelers has been the increased adoption of chip-enabled, e-passports which streamline the immigration entry/exit process (but only for participating countries, of course). Laborious paperwork still exists in many cases with arrival/departure cards and customs declaration forms – but over time, these processes should become more streamlined with the adoption of digital IDs and biometrics.

Using local mobile phone networks may have gotten easier with compatible operating systems, but even with pre-paid travel SIM cards and data packages, access costs are still disproportionately expensive for overseas visitors. Sure, there are more and more public WiFi services and hotspots available, but most still require users to provide personal data and/or reveal security weaknesses. Even though I recently purchased a mobile pass to access “free” WiFi services abroad, it’s hard to see what value it offers, because it only works after I have already logged onto the WiFi network.

Getting flight information, notifications and alerts via SMS and e-mail has improved considerably, along with easier online booking tools and mobile check-in solutions – and of course, QR codes now support paperless boarding cards. But I’ve noticed that some airline apps don’t support full integration with mobile phone wallets, and consolidating ticketing and invoicing information (e.g., for consolidated expense reporting) from multiple airlines and booking platforms still feels a long way off.

Finally, a constant irritation for travelers are the card transaction fees that most hotels still pass on at checkout – as if many guests are likely to pay in cash! – compounded by the FX fees that the credit card companies also like to charge. All up, this can mean an average of between 3% and 5% in additional fees, in a situation where hotel guests are something of a captive audience. Transaction fees remain a target for further disruption….

Next week: Token ring – a digital ID solution

 

 

 

What are the true costs of our car culture?

The recent Australian federal election campaign renewed discussion about financial support for the domestic car industry. The political debate on government subsidies is usually couched in terms of job creation, productivity and industry efficiencies, along with the wider social, economic and technological benefits of having a domestic car manufacturing capability. However, these arguments tend to overlook some of the other costs of our car culture.

HoldenHist 1960To begin with, here are the some of the “key facts” that are usually trotted out:

1. The government subsidy currently costs about $1bn per annum – but the industry is far from alone in receiving direct or indirect government subsidies, and on a per capita basis, the subsidy is somewhere between comparable support for the US and German car industries.

2. Manufacturing as a whole contributes 7.4% of GDP, and 8.3% of employment. (In comparison, mining is 9.6% and 2.4%, while services account for 66% and 86% respectively.)

3. The industry employs 50,000 people in vehicle and parts manufacture, but this is only 5.4% of total manufacturing employment. However, vehicle servicing and repairs, and wholesale and retail activities account for a further 280,000 jobs.

4. There are now only three domestic car manufacturers (Ford, Toyota and General Motors Holden), all of which are foreign-owned; despite ongoing government subsidies, Ford has already decided to cease local manufacturing within a few years – so there are some voices that say we need to protect what we have left.

5. The car industry generates significant benefits through R&D – the sector contributes about 15% of total manufacturing R&D investment. This allegedly has benefits for other sectors, such as delivering improved production processes, and developing new technologies.

Australians have a hard-wired love affair with the car – some would say it’s an inalienable right to own a vehicle, and to drive it wherever and whenever one chooses. Certainly, the development of Holden as a domestic car manufacturer (subsequent to its acquisition by General Motors in the 1930s) is as much a part of the Australian psyche as Federation was in 1901. Cultural and iconic references to the car can be found everywhere – from Peter Carey’s short story (and film) “The Cars That Ate Paris”, to the apocalyptic images of “Mad Max”; from The Triffid’s song “Wide Open Road” to the ABC’s TV documentary of the same name. Cars denote freedom and independence, and are as much a geographic necessity as they are a symbol of economic success. But now that over 80% of the population live in the major cities or in major regional centres, the level of urbanisation would suggest that the car is not the most efficient form of transportation, especially given the increasing road congestion and accompanying levels of road rage.

In his recent book, “End of the road”, Gideon Haigh seems to argue that the only choice for the local car industry lies between subsidies and/or protectionism on the one hand, and a demoralised and unemployed workforce on the other. But regardless of which side of the policy divide you sit, the true cost of our car culture should be measured by a broader set of indicators such as health, infrastructure and energy consumption.

First, few people would argue against the social and economic benefits of meaningful and gainful employment; and domestic car manufacturing has, until its accelerating decline over the past decade or more, provided regular, stable training and employment opportunities. But where and how else could this talent be deployed, and probably to the greater good of the community and the economy? Instead of trying to hold on to a declining sector, should we be encouraging people with design, production, engineering and manufacturing expertise to apply their skills in more high-tech and high-value industries?

Second, despite all the talk about the R&D contribution made by the domestic car industry, I don’t know that we are actually seeing the benefits. For example, average car fuel efficiency has not improved over the past 50 years – because even as engines get more efficient, they become more powerful, and the cars themselves are heavier, leading to higher overall fuel consumption. Australia is the 6th biggest consumer of petrol in the world – and our car emission levels are way above Europe, mainly because we favour larger vehicles with automatic transmissions over smaller, manual models. Cars in Australia are generally marketed on the basis of size, power and price. Thanks to higher average wages and relatively low fuel costs, Australians have a very high petrol purchasing power, so fuel efficiency is less about reducing consumption and emissions, and more about getting the maximum bang for your buck.

Third, despite private sector funding, a number of major Australian toll road projects – e.g., Sydney’s Cross-City and Lane Cove Tunnels, and Brisbane’s Airport Link – have struggled because the developers always over-estimate projected traffic volumes and under-estimate motorists’ willingness to pay tolls. Could that private capital be put to better use by being invested in more integrated transport solutions? The public bus system in Santiago, London’s programme of road-pricing and public transport reinvestment , and the Velib public bicycle service in Paris each suggest there are more imaginative solutions to alleviating vehicle congestion than simply building more roads. Favouring private cars above all other forms of transport is a short-sighted strategy, because either the new roads quickly fill up or toll revenues fail to meet their expected targets. (In London, 25% of all rush-hour vehicles are bikes.)

Finally, increased levels of obesity and diabetes cannot be unrelated to our car culture – a higher concentration of household car ownership has led to more car usage, but for shorter average journeys (47% being less than 2.5km), with each trip conveying fewer people. Could we encourage people to use their cars for fewer short trips (in favour of walking, cycling or taking public transport), and back this up with better urban infrastructure for pedestrians, rail passengers and cyclists?

Unfortunately, our political leaders continue to frame the debate on transport policy around the following mantras:

  • we just need to build more roads to ease car congestion (implying that “only losers take the bus”)
  • we need more toll systems to pay for the new roads (since such projects gain public support because of the anticipated job creation and knock-on economic benefits)
  • we don’t need more trains and especially not high-speed inter-city trains because nobody will use them (even though they would also create jobs and have even greater economic benefits…)
  • meanwhile, we need to keep subsidising the car industry to fill the new roads we are going to build….

Declaration of interest: although I hold a driver’s license, I do not own (and have never owned) a car. If I need to, I hire one. Personally, I’d rather walk or take public transport.

Further declaration of interest: our family had an FB Holden, like the one in this picture, in the early 1970s. I became very familiar with its engine, transmission, differential and brake system as I helped my father rebuild or replace most of the mechanics during that time. For a 3-speed manual vehicle powered by a straight 6 cylinder engine, it drove like a tank and cornered atrociously. But the door windows were ideal for holding the speakers at the drive-in cinema, and it could climb most hills in 2nd gear.