New Year Wishes: What I hope for in 2014

A new year normally brings with it the usual predictions for the 12 months ahead. Sometimes, as with political elections, the World Cup, fiscal budgets and the Oscars, most informed commentators can usually hope to get at least one or two things right. But as a former colleague once wrote, anticipating new developments in technology is like “trying to predict the unpredictable”.*

Rather than attempting to gaze into a crystal ball, here are a few of my personal wishes** for 2014

Politics

I think it’s interesting that in 2013, two of the political leaders that generated most of the news were Margaret Thatcher and Nelson Mandela – and in both cases, it was their passing that dominated the headlines. Neither had been in power for many years, yet in death they were more noteworthy than most of today’s world leaders. Why? Well, a lack of truly charismatic politicians could explain it. But I rather think the lure of holding political office has been undermined by the need to micromanage the machinery of government – so rather than attracting visionary leaders capable of projecting big picture thinking, we mostly get a collective mediocrity blinkered by the spin doctors and party pollsters, and rarely willing to tell the public what they actually think or what they personally believe in, for fear of offending voters in marginal electorates. Whether or not you agreed with or liked their particular brands of politics, it was pretty clear that both Thatcher or Mandela actually believed what they were saying when addressing parliament, giving interviews, or delivering campaign speeches.

In 2014 it would be wonderful to see the return of political leaders who were not simply trying to avoid defeat at the next election. Even better, wouldn’t it be wonderfully refreshing to hear politicians willing to amend their policies because they have been persuaded by informed argument, prepared to admit that they might have got it wrong, and able to speak their mind without being accused of knee-jerk reactions or heretical u-turns; situations change, so shouldn’t our politicians be entitled to adapt and clarify their thinking accordingly?

Leadership

Which brings me to my next wish – a willingness to openly embrace situational leadership. Yes, organisations should have a clear purpose, stated objectives and well-articulated means for achieving them, but there also needs to be flexibility and the ability to adapt and evolve based on changing circumstances.

We hear a great deal about the need for diversity on boards, among executive teams and across the workplace generally. Much of the diversity debate centres on gender and ethnicity – which is fine, but we require organisations with greater cognitive diversity. Such diversity could help avoid group-think, constructively challenge the status quo and counter the underlying causes of institutionalised inertia.

Business

Unless you are a single-product company, with a unique and proprietary production process, a guaranteed market monopoly, and an endless supply of materials and customers, your business cannot afford to exclude alternative thinking or ignore external perspectives on your industry, your markets or your products and services.

Equally, in a low-growth/no-growth market environment, companies have to develop or acquire better strategic growth skills. Expansion via capturing market share (usually achieved by competing on price, and resulting in lower margins) will be hard to sustain, and will likely result in a race to the bottom.

My big wish for 2014 is that businesses in general, and service industries in particular, will recognize what their true value proposition is, and build strategies for competing on quality (not just on quantity). For example, unless you understand your cost structures, and can relate those to your customers’ perceptions of what they are paying for, you will either waste resources on stuff customers don’t value, or miss opportunities for serving them better.

Technology and the Internet

It’s hard to think of any significant developments in popular technology or on the Internet during 2013. Sure, there was some consolidation among social media platforms, and product rationalisation at Yahoo! and elsewhere; but apart from launching iOS7 and the iPhone 5, Apple did not bring any major new products to market. Although Apple’s global share of smart phone sales may be declining, it may simply be market maturation rather than any product advances from its competitors. (There is also evidence that in key markets, iPhone 5 has boosted Apple’s smart phone sales, and the iPhone 5 itself lays claim to being the most popular model.)

The Internet continues to grow exponentially, largely driven by social media and user-contributed content. But I’m not sure that our collective knowledge and wisdom have improved at a corresponding rate. (Plus, targeted and streamed advertising means it takes much longer to watch YouTube clips, resulting in a lower return on the time we invest in consuming content.)

I’m hoping that 2014 will herald the launch of Internet 3.0 – an on-line environment that is more informative, more insightful and more interactive, and which connects more intuitively between my desktop and mobile devices. (For example, various upgrades to iOS and their associated back-ups forced me to transfer manually a large archive of Notes from my iPhone 4 to my iCloud account, simply because Apple unilaterally changed the way legacy content was “recognized” between my iPhone and my iMac.)

Culture

Perhaps we should also wish for a slightly kinder and more caring social media environment in 2014 – and as I heard one media commentator observe this week, professional sports people and other celebrities should probably refrain from using social media after 11pm, even if they are only slightly inebriated. Anyway, at the risk of revealing some of my own prejudices and preferences, this is what I expect from 2014 in Culture.

First up, I don’t want to see any more of the following categories of movie: sequels, prequels, comic-strip franchises, CGI extravaganzas or anything containing anthropomorphism (unless it’s a Director’s Cut of “Animal Farm”).

Second, I eagerly await the end of geo-blocking for digital content – copyright owners, music labels, publishers, licensors/licensees, distributors and on-line retailers please get your act together, and don’t make it unnecessarily difficult for me to buy your content just because of where I happen to live.

Third, I’d like to advocate a special tax on reality TV shows – the proceeds of which will be directed towards alleviating human suffering, solving important world issues, or nurturing genuine artistic/culinary/terpsichorean talent.

Finally, I hope that David Bowie’s return to form with 2013’s “The Next Day” was not a fleeting reminder of past glories….

NOTES:

* Anthony Kinahan in his introduction to “Now and Then 1974-2024: A Celebration of the Bicentenary of Sweet & Maxwell” (1999) a collection of essays on the future of legal publishing

** Aside from, of course world peace, the end of poverty and a global commitment to address the negative impacts of climate change

From student hacker to start-up mogul – an audience with Jonathan Teo

“The man with the Midas touch…”

Jonathan Teo, tech VC with a Midas touch, has been back in Australia recently, and found time to stop by Lean Startup Melbourne for a Q&A with Michelle Bourke in front of an audience of 350 members of the local startup scene.

With a track record that includes Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat in his portfolio of start-up investments, Teo is obviously someone who deserves to be taken seriously, but the candour and humility with which he talked about his experience made for a very down-to-earth evening with such a high-profile investor.

As usual, the event was hosted by Inspire9, with generous support from Kussowski Brothers, Startup Victoria, Products Are Hard, BlueChilli, Investors’ Organisation, Startup Weekend and National Australia Bank.

Teo’s backstory has been told elsewhere (childhood in Singapore, college in Sydney, post-grad at Stanford, Google engineer, venture capitalist…) but the combination of having a great mentor, working in the (then) emerging technology of cloud computing, and some “right time, right place” good fortune has provided him with a powerful platform from which to join the upper echelons of silicon valley VCs.

“The Secrets of My Success”

Naturally, people wanted to know the key to his investing success. Rather than referring to some “special sauce”, Teo pointed to some simple principles:

  • Relationships – strong relationships are essential, both within the founding team, and across the right networks and insiders
  • Self awareness – many founders don’t see their own capability gaps, and therefore can overlook inherent weaknesses in their business
  • Key metrics – know what run-rates the business needs to achieve to meet its performance goals (cash burn rate, retention levels, acquisition costs, daily and consecutive customer usage)

In particular, Teo stressed that new distribution models form the lens for assessing new investment opportunities.

“Show me the money!”

During a discussion about bringing in investors, Teo was pretty sanguine – what works for some start-ups, won’t work for others. If you can self-fund, then do so; if you do need to tap external funding, start with friends and family (who will generally be more patient than professional investors); and if you have to bring in VC’s, make sure you know the trade-offs. He also suggested that crowdfunding is great for consumer plays, but ultimately valuations are determined by demand.

“New Thang”

When asked where “the next big thing” was going to come from, Teo was understandably coy (or simply discreet), and politely suggested it could emerge from somewhere in the audience. What he did offer were some thoughts on emerging trends that will influence future start-ups:

  • Fewer mass-market consumer products – according to Teo, “only China can support a purely domestic consumer play”
  • Less focus on patents, more emphasis on survival – not that IP isn’t important, just that the cost and effort of securing patents mustn’t outweigh the need to generate revenue in the early stages
  • Content niches – unique content is key to attracting advertisers and subscribers, and when combined with rich user data makes for compelling communication and network apps
  • The human touch – products that bring a more human digital experience will gain traction

Finally, Teo predicted the growth of disposable hardware – not sure I agree with this one, but I understand what he is getting at. Personally, I’d be more interested in recyclable hardware, and greater user-serviceable and customisable components.

Declaration: Thanks to the hosts and sponsors, I along with everyone else enjoyed the bounteous gift of free pizza laid on by the organisers.

What are the true costs of our car culture?

The recent Australian federal election campaign renewed discussion about financial support for the domestic car industry. The political debate on government subsidies is usually couched in terms of job creation, productivity and industry efficiencies, along with the wider social, economic and technological benefits of having a domestic car manufacturing capability. However, these arguments tend to overlook some of the other costs of our car culture.

HoldenHist 1960To begin with, here are the some of the “key facts” that are usually trotted out:

1. The government subsidy currently costs about $1bn per annum – but the industry is far from alone in receiving direct or indirect government subsidies, and on a per capita basis, the subsidy is somewhere between comparable support for the US and German car industries.

2. Manufacturing as a whole contributes 7.4% of GDP, and 8.3% of employment. (In comparison, mining is 9.6% and 2.4%, while services account for 66% and 86% respectively.)

3. The industry employs 50,000 people in vehicle and parts manufacture, but this is only 5.4% of total manufacturing employment. However, vehicle servicing and repairs, and wholesale and retail activities account for a further 280,000 jobs.

4. There are now only three domestic car manufacturers (Ford, Toyota and General Motors Holden), all of which are foreign-owned; despite ongoing government subsidies, Ford has already decided to cease local manufacturing within a few years – so there are some voices that say we need to protect what we have left.

5. The car industry generates significant benefits through R&D – the sector contributes about 15% of total manufacturing R&D investment. This allegedly has benefits for other sectors, such as delivering improved production processes, and developing new technologies.

Australians have a hard-wired love affair with the car – some would say it’s an inalienable right to own a vehicle, and to drive it wherever and whenever one chooses. Certainly, the development of Holden as a domestic car manufacturer (subsequent to its acquisition by General Motors in the 1930s) is as much a part of the Australian psyche as Federation was in 1901. Cultural and iconic references to the car can be found everywhere – from Peter Carey’s short story (and film) “The Cars That Ate Paris”, to the apocalyptic images of “Mad Max”; from The Triffid’s song “Wide Open Road” to the ABC’s TV documentary of the same name. Cars denote freedom and independence, and are as much a geographic necessity as they are a symbol of economic success. But now that over 80% of the population live in the major cities or in major regional centres, the level of urbanisation would suggest that the car is not the most efficient form of transportation, especially given the increasing road congestion and accompanying levels of road rage.

In his recent book, “End of the road”, Gideon Haigh seems to argue that the only choice for the local car industry lies between subsidies and/or protectionism on the one hand, and a demoralised and unemployed workforce on the other. But regardless of which side of the policy divide you sit, the true cost of our car culture should be measured by a broader set of indicators such as health, infrastructure and energy consumption.

First, few people would argue against the social and economic benefits of meaningful and gainful employment; and domestic car manufacturing has, until its accelerating decline over the past decade or more, provided regular, stable training and employment opportunities. But where and how else could this talent be deployed, and probably to the greater good of the community and the economy? Instead of trying to hold on to a declining sector, should we be encouraging people with design, production, engineering and manufacturing expertise to apply their skills in more high-tech and high-value industries?

Second, despite all the talk about the R&D contribution made by the domestic car industry, I don’t know that we are actually seeing the benefits. For example, average car fuel efficiency has not improved over the past 50 years – because even as engines get more efficient, they become more powerful, and the cars themselves are heavier, leading to higher overall fuel consumption. Australia is the 6th biggest consumer of petrol in the world – and our car emission levels are way above Europe, mainly because we favour larger vehicles with automatic transmissions over smaller, manual models. Cars in Australia are generally marketed on the basis of size, power and price. Thanks to higher average wages and relatively low fuel costs, Australians have a very high petrol purchasing power, so fuel efficiency is less about reducing consumption and emissions, and more about getting the maximum bang for your buck.

Third, despite private sector funding, a number of major Australian toll road projects – e.g., Sydney’s Cross-City and Lane Cove Tunnels, and Brisbane’s Airport Link – have struggled because the developers always over-estimate projected traffic volumes and under-estimate motorists’ willingness to pay tolls. Could that private capital be put to better use by being invested in more integrated transport solutions? The public bus system in Santiago, London’s programme of road-pricing and public transport reinvestment , and the Velib public bicycle service in Paris each suggest there are more imaginative solutions to alleviating vehicle congestion than simply building more roads. Favouring private cars above all other forms of transport is a short-sighted strategy, because either the new roads quickly fill up or toll revenues fail to meet their expected targets. (In London, 25% of all rush-hour vehicles are bikes.)

Finally, increased levels of obesity and diabetes cannot be unrelated to our car culture – a higher concentration of household car ownership has led to more car usage, but for shorter average journeys (47% being less than 2.5km), with each trip conveying fewer people. Could we encourage people to use their cars for fewer short trips (in favour of walking, cycling or taking public transport), and back this up with better urban infrastructure for pedestrians, rail passengers and cyclists?

Unfortunately, our political leaders continue to frame the debate on transport policy around the following mantras:

  • we just need to build more roads to ease car congestion (implying that “only losers take the bus”)
  • we need more toll systems to pay for the new roads (since such projects gain public support because of the anticipated job creation and knock-on economic benefits)
  • we don’t need more trains and especially not high-speed inter-city trains because nobody will use them (even though they would also create jobs and have even greater economic benefits…)
  • meanwhile, we need to keep subsidising the car industry to fill the new roads we are going to build….

Declaration of interest: although I hold a driver’s license, I do not own (and have never owned) a car. If I need to, I hire one. Personally, I’d rather walk or take public transport.

Further declaration of interest: our family had an FB Holden, like the one in this picture, in the early 1970s. I became very familiar with its engine, transmission, differential and brake system as I helped my father rebuild or replace most of the mechanics during that time. For a 3-speed manual vehicle powered by a straight 6 cylinder engine, it drove like a tank and cornered atrociously. But the door windows were ideal for holding the speakers at the drive-in cinema, and it could climb most hills in 2nd gear.

Why it’s important to make time for play

Do we spend enough time playing? As adults, have we forgotten how to play? Have we in fact been conditioned to stop playing once we “grow up”?

Bigshot Front View

Most of us would probably recognise that a lack of play during our childhood can have serious consequences for our psychological development. Dr. Stuart Brown of the National Institute for Play makes the case that a lack of adult play has a negative impact both on our energy levels and on our mental well-being. Again, most people would appreciate that taking time out from our daily tasks and routine can lift our spirits and put us in a better frame of mind – it can also help us with problem-solving and creative thinking – but few of us make a conscious effort to schedule some dedicated and regular play activity into our day. (And I don’t mean simply spending an hour or two playing computer games.)

How we play is just as important as what we play with, and the type of play activity that engages us – in short, we are what we play. So the absence of any play may suggest something is missing in our lives.

When I was a child, some of my favourite toys enabled me to design and build things, to construct working models with clockwork and electric motors, to assemble, disassemble and re-assemble simple electronic circuits for radios, light-operated switches and walkie-talkies. I even built a rudimentary synthesizer using parts stripped from an old TV set, and a keyboard made from an ice cream tin. OK, so I wasn’t going to get a gig with Kraftwerk, but I did learn about capacitors, resistors, transistors, diodes, rheostats, transformers and relays, even if I couldn’t get a recognizable tune out of the instrument itself.

This avid curiosity about how things work once caused me to take apart a clockwork motor, which I was then unable to get to work again. My father, an engineer, simply said, “Never take something apart unless you know how to put it back together”, sage advice which is helpful even today in my role as a strategist, executive coach and business consultant.

I would suggest that there is a link between abandoning play in adulthood and a growing lack of curiosity about how things actually work once we get older, coupled with our increasing passivity towards new technology. For example, how many of us would know (or care) how to repair simple mechanical or electrical appliances in our homes?

While there has been an understandable effort aimed at encouraging children to learn how to write code, this emphasis on software comes at the expense of learning how machines work, how hardware is designed, how electronic and mechanical components combine together. This software bias has prompted a team of educationalists to launch the Bigshot digital camera kit designed to help children learn through play by making a real digital camera, and to understand the relationship between software and hardware. Others are teaching summer schools that combine software programming with engineering and robotics – but the broader goal is to develop problem-solving, logic, comprehension and reasoning skills.

Our pursuit of creative or constructive play in adulthood is not helped by the obsession designers and manufacturers have with producing “sealed units” – hardware that comes with “no user serviceable parts inside”*.  Even if we succeeded in taking the back off a gadget and having a look inside, it would probably invalidate the warranty and extinguish our consumer protection rights.

If we don’t understand how the things we use are designed to work, how can we tell if something is wrong, how can we learn to improve them, how can we find new ways of using them?

Smart companies and organizations understand the importance of learning through play and actively encourage their people to spend time “playing” – either through the pursuit of pet projects, or through creative, collaborative and social activities designed to instil innovation and fresh thinking.

As such, I’m very interested to hear from organizations that incorporate “play” into their regular activities, to understand why and how they do it, and to learn about the outcomes and benefits it delivers. I can be contacted via this blog, LinkedIn or Twitter.

*Note: Software is often just as bad with so-called “default” settings that get in the way of our ability to play around with and explore the programs we use.