Finding wisdom in a binary world

Sometimes I think that the thirst for data, combined with a digital mindset, is reducing our analytical and critical thinking to a highly polarised, binary-driven view of the world.

Rather than recognizing that most ideas and concepts are composed in “technicolor” we are increasingly reducing our options, choices, responses and decisions to “black or white” conclusions. Everything has to be couched in terms of:

  • on/off
  • yes/no
  • true/false
  • positive/negative
  • for/against
  • like/dislike
  • friend/unfriend
  • connect/disconnect

It feels that our conditioning is driven by the need for certainty, the desire to be “right”, and the tendency to avoid disagreement/difference. However, uncertainty is more prevalent than we may like to admit. To illustrate what I mean, here are four personal learning experiences I would like to share by way of demonstrating that not everything can be reduced to black or white thinking:

1. The scenario is the same, but the context, therefore the answer,  is different

Although I was born and grew up in the UK, I completed part of my primary education in Australia. Before returning to the UK, I was required to complete the 11-plus exam, to determine which secondary school I would attend in England. (The exam was mainly designed to test literacy, numeracy and verbal reasoning.) Here’s a multiple choice question which I got “wrong”:

Q. Why do windows have shutters?

I chose “to keep out the sun” as my answer. In fact, the “correct” answer was “to keep out the wind”. The invigilator was kind enough to include a note to the examiners that my answer was based on the fact that I had been living in Australia, where window shutters are primarily designed to keep out the sun (and therefore the heat). Whereas in the UK, shutters are largely used as a protection against the wind.

2. The facts are the same, but the interpretation is different

While studying for my law degree, I had to write an essay on reforming the use and application of discretionary trusts, based on the current legislation and recent court cases. I argued in favour of an alternative approach to the relevant court decisions, and deliberately took a contrary view based on my social and political outlook at the time, and influenced by what I saw were changes in public policy.

To my great surprise, the tutor gave me one of my highest ever grades in that subject – even though she disagreed with my conclusions, she recognised that my reasoning was sound, and my interpretation was valid.

3. The intention may be “constructive”, but someone will always choose to see only the negative

Early in my career, I participated in a TV documentary series about different types of interview situations. As a local government officer, it was my role to advise members of the public on how to navigate the various regulations and policies in respect to accessing council services, as they related to their own particular circumstances.

One interview I conducted was included in the final broadcast. I thought my advice was objective, and based on widely accepted principles, but without advocating or recommending a specific course of action, as I believed it was my job to remain impartial yet factual. I later discovered that another local council used part of the same interview footage to train their own staff in how not to conduct an interview, because it could have been mis-interpreted as a way to get around the system. So, whereas I thought I was being constructive, someone in a position of authority chose to see it as a negative influence.

4. The assumptions may be reasonable, but the results often prove otherwise

Years later, I found myself having to defend a proposal to launch a smaller, and cheaper, version of a global product in a local market. The received wisdom among many of my colleagues was that the proposal would result in less revenue, even if customer numbers grew. As part of the initiative, I also advocated shutting down a legacy local product in the same market – partly to reduce production costs, and partly because very few customers were actually paying for this outdated service. Again, I faced resistance because a number of internal stakeholders thought customers would refuse to pay for a superior service, and that the business would end up alienating existing customers and, by extension, upsetting the local market.

Subject to a detailed customer migration plan, some very specific financial metrics and frequent status reports, the project was greenlighted. 12 months’ after implementation, the results were:

  • Comparable revenue was doubled
  • Overall production costs were halved
  • A significant number of new clients were signed up (including several from new market segments)

The closure of the legacy product did see the loss of some customers (about 10-15% of the legacy client base), but this was mostly non-paying business, and was more than offset by the increased revenue and customer growth. [In my experience, significant platform migrations and product upgrades can result in up to 20% of customers electing not to switch.]

What are we to conclude from this?

It’s totally understandable that businesses want to deal only with certainty (“just give me the facts…”) and often struggle to accommodate alternative or contrary perspectives. But despite the prevailing digital age of “ones and zeroes”, we are actually operating in a more fluid and diverse environment, where new business opportunities are going to be increasingly less obvious or come from non-traditional sources. While we may find comfort in sticking to core principles, we may end up missing out altogether if we are not prepared to adapt to changing circumstances: context is all about the difference between “data” and “knowledge”.

Wisdom comes from learning to acknowledge (and embrace) ambiguity; individuals, teams, organisations and businesses are more likely to benefit from greater diversity in their thinking, resulting in richer experiences and more beneficial outcomes.

 

How Can I Help?

My purpose in launching this blog was to develop a personal brand, to engage with an audience, and to provide a platform for my ideas and interests, especially in respect to navigating the “information age”.

At the risk of self-aggrandizement, I’d like to think that this blog is helpful, informative and even entertaining. After two years of blogging, I have a sizeable and regular audience, my content gets shared and commented on by numerous readers, and key articles continue to be read many months after publication. (Two of the most popular articles in 2014 were actually published in early 2013.)

Several of my core followers have mentioned why they enjoy my blog, and these are some of their reasons:

  1. The content is original and well written
  2. The articles make them think about things in new ways
  3. I write about novel ideas
  4. My thinking reveals hitherto hidden or less obvious connections
  5. I’m never afraid to state my opinion

Which all suggest to me that they derive value from my analysis and conclusions.

So, my offer of help is this: If you would like access to this creative process, either in support of a specific business opportunity, or to address a strategic issue you face, or simply to help with your own content development, please get in touch via this blog or direct by e-mail. In return, I will provide you with an initial assessment of the issues as I see them, and an outline solution, at no obligation. It’s simply my way of saying “thank you” to everyone who has made an effort to engage with Content in Context.

 

2015 – A Year for Optimism?

After a very challenging 2014, I am trying to face 2015 with a spirit of renewed rationalism and optimism. It won’t be easy, but if we can remain true to our real purpose, and (re)-connect with those things that bring us a sense of joy with the world, maybe we can get through it together. Now, more than ever, we need a Chief Rational Optimist

 

Online Pillar 2: #Finance

Along with the launch of the iPhone 6, Apple also announced a new mobile payments system. OK, so it’s not the first smart phone app that will help you manage (read: SPEND) your money, but it’s likely to be a market leader very quickly. After all, financial services mean big money in the interconnected online economy.

This week’s blog is #2 in my mini-series on the Three Pillars. Away from NFC solutions, digital wallets and virtual currencies, what else is helping to drive online innovation in financial services?

First, as with last week’s look at Health, it’s important to consider that despite being both a defined business vertical, and a highly regulated industry, the financial services sector is also vulnerable to market disintermediation, horizontal challengers and disruptive technologies.

Although most of us tend to stick with a single financial institution for the bulk of our banking products and services, we will likely use different providers across our credit cards, insurance policies, personal investments, retirement plans and foreign currency. The major banks don’t always do a good job of being a single provider of choice because they tend to manage their customers from a product perspective, and not always from the vantage point of a life-cycle of different needs.

Most retail banks have launched customer apps – mainly for account management and transaction purposes – and likewise, other platforms such as PayPal offer smart phone solutions. As with our other two pillars (Health and Education), Finance apps proliferate – e.g., calculators, account aggregators, budgeting tools and branded customer products from major financial institutions. But unlike Health apps, at least the Australian retail banks have to comply with consumer information requirements – although I suspect this is more a requirement of APRA than Apple. (Question: should apps offering stock market data, or enabling customers to plan investment strategies have to include product disclosure statements, or ensure customers have first completed a mandatory risk profile?)

Disruption in the banking and finance sector is coming from a variety of directions:

  • traditional retailers extending their existing credit card and insurance services into deposit accounts and investment products;
  • technology startups creating online payment systems;
  • trading platform Alibaba offering microfinance, trade finance services, deposit accounts and investment funds; and
  • online retailers and market places collecting a lot of useful behavioural data on customer creditworthiness and implied financial risk – for example, platforms like eBay and PayPal are using transactional data to assign customers a quasi-credit rating score or ranking.

Elsewhere, the financial services sector drives the use of data and technology to streamline stock trading and settlement – across algorithmic trading strategies, low-latency trading, straight-through securities processing, transaction and security data matching, market identifiers and real-time data analytics. The use of social media sentiment and stock #hashtags is also creating new trading strategies among savvier investors – one major Australian bank I spoke to recently boasted of having a Media Control Centre, where they can monitor client engagement, customer activity and brand profiles across the social web.

Crowdsourcing services, along with other platforms for raising capital and early-stage funding (plus new online listing and share trading platforms) threaten to disintermediate established stock exchanges, investment banks and stock brokers. Yet I see a huge opportunity for traditional bank and non-bank lenders to use these techniques for themselves. For example, banks love asset-backed and secured lending, as opposed to overdraft or cashflow lending. However, most startups don’t have physical assets such as plant or machinery, and young entrepreneurs are less likely to own property that can be put up as collateral.

So, what if banks see startup clients as a new channel to market? By investing part of their marketing costs or R&D budgets to underwrite new business ventures, they could help fund early stage ideas, and gather valuable information on customers and suppliers. Some banks are sort of moving in this startup direction – NAB and RBS, for example – but they have yet to demonstrate new business models or innovative product solutions that align with the lean startup and new entrepreneurial generation. I have observed many founders bemoan the lack of support from banks when it comes to offering merchant services that align with the needs of startups.

On another level, banks could do more to connect ideas with capital, customers with vendors, and buyers with suppliers – as the increasingly online and highly networked economy introduces new supply chains and innovative business models. (Hint to my bank manager: referrals and recommendations are often the most cost-effective way to acquire new customers – so, maybe we can help each other?)

Of course, where financial institutions really need to lift their game is in coming to grips with the shared economy. If consumers no longer see the need to buy or own assets outright (thereby reducing the reliance on mortgages, personal loans, hire purchase agreements and even credit cards….) what are the implications for financial services? Maybe banks need to take more interest in these “shared” asset eco-systems. For example, if I have taken out an investment loan to buy an apartment, which I plan to list on Airbnb, wouldn’t it be in the bank’s best interest to make sure I am getting as many bookings as possible – by helping to market my property to their other customers, or by making it really easy for people to book and pay for the accommodation via their smart phone banking app, or by enabling me to run online credit checks on prospective customers?

It’s nearly ten years since the term “distributed economy” was coined to encapsulate the new approaches to innovation, collaboration and sustainable resource allocation. Apart from microfinance and some developments in CSR and ethical investing, I’m not sure that financial institutions really grasped the opportunities presented by the distributed economy – sure, they were quick to outsource and offshore back office operations, but this was largely a cost-cutting exercise. Innovation in financial products mainly resulted in complex (and risky) derivative instruments – and ultimately, led to the GFC.

In the current low/slow/no growth economic climate, banks have to look at new ways of generating a return on their capital. They can’t just keep paying out higher shareholder dividends (not when banking regulations require them to increase their risk-weighted capital allocation); so they must engage with the new business models and the people behind them, and they must be willing to do so with a new mindset, not one built on staid financing models. Sure, they need to maintain prudent lending standards, and undertake relevant due diligence, but not at the risk of stifling innovation in the markets where their customers increasingly operate.

(For a related article on this topic, see here. Since I drafted this blog, PayPal has launched an SME loan platform, and it has just been announced that the ex-CEO of bond fund PIMCO has taken a key equity stake in an online Peer-to-Peer lending platform.)

Next week: Online Pillar 3: #Education